Retail used car prices are high, but our forward-looking signals keep getting weaker. Cox Automotive reported that the average used listing price reached $27,235 in September, the highest since December 2022. Inventory is building at the same time: Autotrader puts supply at 49 days. The mid-October Manheim index firmed 0.7% to 207.4, and Cox credited that to leaner wholesale supply rather than stronger buying.
CarCast's AI-powered forecasts, run October 25, show the same pattern.
How we built this forecast
Every number below comes from segments with at least 500 listing observations in the past four weeks and fresh data from the last two weeks. We left out exotics, where thin listings produce outliers. That leaves 660 segments. All forecasts cover the next 60 days.
Is the used car market getting weaker?
Slowly, yes. Here's how the signal mix has moved over six weekly forecast runs:
| Forecast run | Segments | Buy | Hold | Sell | Avg 60-day forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | 652 | 37 | 524 | 91 | −0.32% |
| Sep 27 | 654 | 36 | 525 | 93 | −0.29% |
| Oct 4 | 653 | 56 | 505 | 92 | −0.25% |
| Oct 11 | 659 | 41 | 523 | 95 | −0.25% |
| Oct 18 | 661 | 58 | 480 | 123 | −0.42% |
| Oct 25 | 660 | 45 | 491 | 124 | −0.41% |
Sell signals rose from 91 to 124 (+36%) in six weeks, with most of the jump coming in the October 18 run. The Hold group is shrinking: some of it is tipping into Sell, and a smaller share is moving into Buy. This isn't a crash. The market is sorting into clearer winners and losers heading into the holidays.
Which used cars are forecast to rise?
These are the strongest Buy signals in the well-listed set:
| Vehicle | Current median | 60-day forecast | Listings (4 wks) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Hyundai Ioniq 5 | $31,008 | +8.24% | 513 |
| 2024 Volkswagen ID.4 | $22,691 | +4.74% | 917 |
| 2016 BMW 328i | $11,000 | +3.81% | 1,379 |
| 2016 Kia Sorento LX | $9,133 | +3.68% | 1,718 |
| 2019 Chevrolet Colorado LT | $20,075 | +3.65% | 1,236 |
| 2017 Honda Pilot EX-L | $16,562 | +3.49% | 2,319 |
| 2014 Nissan Frontier SV | $12,999 | +3.46% | 597 |
| 2017 Nissan Sentra SV | $8,174 | +3.22% | 1,224 |
| 2015 Acura MDX Technology | $12,900 | +3.14% | 659 |
| 2019 Ford Mustang GT Premium | $32,997 | +3.08% | 1,261 |
Six of the 10 are 2014–2017 vehicles priced under $17,000, led by family SUVs like the Sorento, Pilot and MDX. That fits the affordability pattern we laid out in our price-band analysis.
The two affordable EVs at the top are worth watching, but treat the Ioniq 5 with some caution. Its forecast moved from −1.22% to +8.24% in two weeks, and it barely clears our listing threshold.
One car we left off the list on purpose: the 2022 Ford Explorer XLT. Its forecast jumped from −4.06% to +10.02% in a single week, and our signal still rates it Hold. We're treating that as noise until it holds for a few more weeks.
Which used cars are forecast to fall?
These are the weakest Sell signals:
| Vehicle | Current median | 60-day forecast | Listings (4 wks) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Lucid Air | $38,217 | −9.42% | 697 |
| 2025 Honda Prologue | $29,232 | −7.46% | 570 |
| 2024 Polestar 2 | $25,000 | −7.38% | 2,453 |
| 2024 Audi Q8 e-tron | $37,984 | −6.70% | 2,277 |
| 2023 Hyundai Elantra SE | $16,995 | −6.67% | 750 |
| 2021 Nissan Altima S | $15,966 | −6.55% | 857 |
| 2023 Mercedes-Benz EQE SUV | $36,605 | −6.40% | 2,864 |
| 2024 BMW iX | $47,658 | −5.63% | 3,971 |
| 2021 Jeep Grand Cherokee Limited | $21,504 | −5.60% | 3,523 |
| 2022 Chevrolet Colorado LT | $20,224 | −5.46% | 3,297 |
| 2023 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 LT | $34,336 | −4.84% | 10,559 |
Six of the 11 are late-model EVs. That matches Carfax's October report, which found that lease returns pushed used hybrid and EV prices down for a second straight month. Across all 93 well-listed EV segments, our average forecast is −1.12%, compared with −0.29% for gas and hybrid vehicles.
The Colorado shows how much model year matters. The 2019 Colorado LT is one of our top risers at +3.65%. The 2022 Colorado LT is one of the weakest at −5.46%, at nearly the same price. The 2023 Silverado LT is still sliding too, as we covered in last week's truck data story.
Which brands are holding value?
Here are brand averages across well-listed segments (brands with at least 12 segments):
| Brand | Segments | Avg 60-day forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Buick | 12 | +0.33% |
| Acura | 12 | +0.29% |
| Nissan | 57 | −0.06% |
| Subaru | 22 | −0.10% |
| Toyota | 87 | −0.14% |
| Volkswagen | 14 | −0.14% |
| Honda | 51 | −0.23% |
| Ford | 75 | −0.50% |
| Jeep | 24 | −0.77% |
| Chevrolet | 71 | −0.86% |
| BMW | 22 | −1.05% |
| Mercedes-Benz | 12 | −1.18% |
Mercedes-Benz and BMW are at the bottom, largely because of their EVs. Chevrolet is weighed down by late-model Silverado, Colorado and Equinox EV segments.
Does price still predict which way a car will move?
Yes, and the pattern is getting sharper:
- Under $15,000: +0.06%
- $15,000–$25,000: −0.39%
- $25,000–$35,000: −0.51%
- $35,000 and up: −1.01%
What should you do this week?
Buyers: If you're shopping for a late-model EV, a 2022–2023 Silverado or Colorado, or a 2021 Grand Cherokee, waiting through the holidays likely pays off. If you're looking at an older family SUV under $17,000, today's price is probably as good as it gets.
Sellers: Selling older, affordable vehicles into strong demand makes sense. Sell late-model luxury EVs sooner rather than later.
Dealers: The Sell signals are concentrated in late-model EVs and full-size trucks. Price that inventory to move before year-end.
You can search any vehicle on CarCast for its 60-day forecast and listing depth, compare our numbers with KBB and Edmunds, or see what each CarCast plan includes.
See the full 2023 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 LT forecast on CarCast →