Sell-or-hold analysis
Ford F-150 Lightning vs gas F-150: which depreciates less?
The gas F-150 — by a wide margin. Over the past 12 months, the 2023 F-150 Lightning depreciated roughly 22-28% while a comparable 2023 gas F-150 XLT lost only 8-12%. That gap is the single largest EV-vs-ICE residual differential in the truck segment.
If you already own a Lightning, the question is whether the bleeding is slowing — our 60-day forward band below answers that with confidence intervals. If you're cross-shopping, the math currently favors a used gas F-150 unless your duty cycle is short-haul + home-charging and your TCO modeling makes up the residual gap.
2023 Ford F-150 Lightning price history
Last 26 weeksMedian asking prices aggregated weekly from active dealer and auction listings.
2023 Ford F-150 Lightning 60-day price forecast
Next 8 weeks| Week ending | Low (P10) | Expected (P50) | High (P90) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | $44,473 | $45,087 | $45,965 |
| May 22, 2026 | $44,301 | $45,046 | $46,082 |
| May 29, 2026 | $44,159 | $45,054 | $46,264 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | $44,183 | $45,159 | $46,473 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | $44,153 | $45,200 | $46,600 |
| Jun 19, 2026 | $44,016 | $45,135 | $46,628 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | $43,961 | $45,155 | $46,759 |
| Jul 3, 2026 | $43,890 | $45,167 | $46,874 |
Common questions
Why is the F-150 Lightning depreciating so fast?
Three converging factors: Ford cut new-truck MSRPs by $5,000-$10,000 in 2024-2025, the federal $7,500 EV credit is in flux for fleet/commercial buyers, and EV-truck demand has reset lower as early adopters have already bought. Used Lightning buyers now demand a discount steep enough to undercut a new one after incentives.
Will the Lightning's value stabilize when used-EV tax credits expand?
Partially. Section 25E currently caps at $25,000 sale price, which excludes most Lightning inventory. If that cap rises in a future tax cycle, the floor for Lightning at the $25,000-$35,000 band would lift quickly. We don't bake unannounced policy into our forecast.
Is a used Lightning a good buy in 2026?
If the duty cycle is short-haul daily driving with home L2 charging, the depreciation is your friend as a buyer — Lightnings under $40,000 are common at auction now, which is roughly $20,000 below where they sat 24 months ago. Verify the battery warranty status and confirm the truck has the latest BCM and BlueCruise software.
Compare Lightning vs gas F-150 forecasts in one place
See the live 60-day forecast band, weekly market refresh, and price alerts for every CarCast-tracked vehicle.
Last updated May 8, 2026. Forecast refreshes weekly from live dealer listings.
Forecasts and trend classifications are informational analytics only and do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to purchase, hold, or sell any vehicle. Individual market conditions vary.