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Sell-or-hold analysis
The gas F-150 — by a wide margin. Over the past 12 months, the 2023 F-150 Lightning depreciated roughly 22-28% while a comparable 2023 gas F-150 XLT lost only 8-12%. That gap is the single largest EV-vs-ICE residual differential in the truck segment.
If you already own a Lightning, the question is whether the bleeding is slowing — our 60-day forward band below answers that with confidence intervals. If you're cross-shopping, the math currently favors a used gas F-150 unless your duty cycle is short-haul + home-charging and your TCO modeling makes up the residual gap.
Median asking prices aggregated weekly from active dealer and auction listings.
| Week ending | Low (P10) | Expected (P50) | High (P90) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | $44,911 | $45,747 | $46,403 |
| Nov 15, 2026 | $44,959 | $45,907 | $46,648 |
| Nov 22, 2026 | $44,915 | $45,949 | $46,773 |
| Nov 29, 2026 | $44,882 | $45,988 | $46,870 |
| Dec 6, 2026 | $44,894 | $46,038 | $46,965 |
| Dec 13, 2026 | $44,844 | $46,058 | $47,041 |
| Dec 20, 2026 | $44,821 | $46,077 | $47,085 |
| Dec 27, 2026 | $44,680 | $46,002 | $47,076 |
Three converging factors: Ford cut new-truck MSRPs by $5,000-$10,000 in 2024-2025, the federal $7,500 EV credit is in flux for fleet/commercial buyers, and EV-truck demand has reset lower as early adopters have already bought. Used Lightning buyers now demand a discount steep enough to undercut a new one after incentives.
Partially. Section 25E currently caps at $25,000 sale price, which excludes most Lightning inventory. If that cap rises in a future tax cycle, the floor for Lightning at the $25,000-$35,000 band would lift quickly. We don't bake unannounced policy into our forecast.
If the duty cycle is short-haul daily driving with home L2 charging, the depreciation is your friend as a buyer — Lightnings under $40,000 are common at auction now, which is roughly $20,000 below where they sat 24 months ago. Verify the battery warranty status and confirm the truck has the latest BCM and BlueCruise software.
The next step is a 30–60 day market-risk review of five vehicles, read alongside the valuation tools you already use.
Last updated November 1, 2026. Forecast refreshes weekly from live dealer listings.
Forecasts and trend classifications are informational analytics only and do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to purchase, hold, or sell any vehicle. Individual market conditions vary.