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Sell-or-hold analysis
The short answer depends on the forecast band below — if the 60-day P50 is trending down more than 3%, sell within the next 30 days; if it's flat or up, hold. The 2023 Model 3 RWD trades against the largest active EV inventory pool in the US, so timing matters more than for a low-volume vehicle.
Model 3 RWD pricing has been pressured throughout 2025-2026 by Tesla's new-car price cuts and the post-incentive EV demand reset. The chart below shows the 26-week trajectory and our forward path so you can decide based on data, not vibes.
Median asking prices aggregated weekly from active dealer and auction listings.
| Week ending | Low (P10) | Expected (P50) | High (P90) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | $26,302 | $27,165 | $27,840 |
| Nov 15, 2026 | $26,387 | $27,338 | $28,037 |
| Nov 22, 2026 | $26,262 | $27,318 | $28,065 |
| Nov 29, 2026 | $26,239 | $27,349 | $28,137 |
| Dec 6, 2026 | $26,221 | $27,381 | $28,190 |
| Dec 13, 2026 | $26,088 | $27,341 | $28,219 |
| Dec 20, 2026 | $26,046 | $27,362 | $28,283 |
| Dec 27, 2026 | $25,812 | $27,251 | $28,265 |
Yes — under current IRS Section 25E rules, a used 2023 Model 3 RWD sold by a registered dealer for under $25,000 qualifies for up to $4,000 in federal credit, subject to income limits. That credit shifts the breakeven on selling vs holding by roughly $4,000 if you're cross-shopping. Always confirm with the IRS portal at point of sale.
Quarter-over-quarter the rate has slowed since the late-2024 trough, but year-over-year the 2023 RWD is still trading roughly 18-22% below where the same car sat 12 months ago. Our forecast model factors in the new-car MSRP floor — that floor anchors used pricing within roughly $2,500.
The Highland refresh has already been priced into the 2023 used market — most of the drop happened in Q1-Q2 2025 when refreshed inventory first hit US dealers. Going forward the refresh impact is largely absorbed; current price action tracks broader EV demand more than refresh comparisons.
The next step is a 30–60 day market-risk review of five vehicles, read alongside the valuation tools you already use.
Last updated November 1, 2026. Forecast refreshes weekly from live dealer listings.
Forecasts and trend classifications are informational analytics only and do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to purchase, hold, or sell any vehicle. Individual market conditions vary.