Sell-or-hold analysis
Should I sell my 2023 Tesla Model 3 RWD now or wait?
The short answer depends on the forecast band below — if the 60-day P50 is trending down more than 3%, sell within the next 30 days; if it's flat or up, hold. The 2023 Model 3 RWD trades against the largest active EV inventory pool in the US, so timing matters more than for a low-volume vehicle.
Model 3 RWD pricing has been pressured throughout 2025-2026 by Tesla's new-car price cuts and the post-incentive EV demand reset. The chart below shows the 26-week trajectory and our forward path so you can decide based on data, not vibes.
2023 Tesla Model 3 RWD price history
Last 26 weeksMedian asking prices aggregated weekly from active dealer and auction listings.
2023 Tesla Model 3 RWD 60-day price forecast
Next 8 weeks| Week ending | Low (P10) | Expected (P50) | High (P90) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | $26,302 | $27,165 | $27,840 |
| May 22, 2026 | $26,387 | $27,338 | $28,037 |
| May 29, 2026 | $26,262 | $27,318 | $28,065 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | $26,239 | $27,349 | $28,137 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | $26,221 | $27,381 | $28,190 |
| Jun 19, 2026 | $26,088 | $27,341 | $28,219 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | $26,046 | $27,362 | $28,283 |
| Jul 3, 2026 | $25,812 | $27,251 | $28,265 |
Common questions
Does the 2023 Model 3 RWD qualify for the used-EV tax credit?
Yes — under current IRS Section 25E rules, a used 2023 Model 3 RWD sold by a registered dealer for under $25,000 qualifies for up to $4,000 in federal credit, subject to income limits. That credit shifts the breakeven on selling vs holding by roughly $4,000 if you're cross-shopping. Always confirm with the IRS portal at point of sale.
Is Model 3 RWD depreciation slowing or accelerating?
Quarter-over-quarter the rate has slowed since the late-2024 trough, but year-over-year the 2023 RWD is still trading roughly 18-22% below where the same car sat 12 months ago. Our forecast model factors in the new-car MSRP floor — that floor anchors used pricing within roughly $2,500.
Will the Model 3 'Highland' refresh push 2023 RWD prices lower?
The Highland refresh has already been priced into the 2023 used market — most of the drop happened in Q1-Q2 2025 when refreshed inventory first hit US dealers. Going forward the refresh impact is largely absorbed; current price action tracks broader EV demand more than refresh comparisons.
Get the live 60-day forecast for your exact Model 3 trim
See the live 60-day forecast band, weekly market refresh, and price alerts for every CarCast-tracked vehicle.
Last updated May 8, 2026. Forecast refreshes weekly from live dealer listings.
Forecasts and trend classifications are informational analytics only and do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to purchase, hold, or sell any vehicle. Individual market conditions vary.