Sell-or-hold analysis
2024 Tesla Model Y depreciation forecast (2026–2027)
The 2024 Model Y sits at the inflection point between Tesla's late-2024 incentive-driven inventory glut and the late-2025 stabilization. Our 60-day forecast for this trim is shown below — the trajectory is what matters more than any single snapshot.
Over the next 12 months, the Model Y is unlikely to follow the same depreciation curve as the Model 3 because SUV/crossover EVs have held value 3-5 percentage points better than sedans in every monthly cohort we tracked. That doesn't mean it's a buy — it means the rate of loss is gentler.
2024 Tesla Model Y price history
Last 26 weeksMedian asking prices aggregated weekly from active dealer and auction listings.
2024 Tesla Model Y 60-day price forecast
Next 8 weeks| Week ending | Low (P10) | Expected (P50) | High (P90) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | $37,459 | $38,212 | $38,847 |
| May 22, 2026 | $37,016 | $37,871 | $38,579 |
| May 29, 2026 | $37,416 | $38,403 | $39,112 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | $37,216 | $38,325 | $39,091 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | $36,980 | $38,161 | $38,971 |
| Jun 19, 2026 | $37,027 | $38,344 | $39,233 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | $37,066 | $38,459 | $39,412 |
| Jul 3, 2026 | $36,972 | $38,444 | $39,476 |
Common questions
Does the Model Y refresh ('Juniper') impact 2024 resale value?
Juniper was announced in early 2025 and began shipping mid-2025. The 2024 Model Y now sits one generation behind on interior and exterior styling, which has pulled approximately $2,500-$3,500 off comparable used pricing versus a pre-refresh trajectory. Most of that compression is already in the market.
Long Range vs RWD — which 2024 Model Y holds value better?
Long Range AWD has retained roughly 4-6% more value than RWD over the past 12 months because EV buyers in colder climates strongly prefer AWD for winter range. The Long Range premium at new was $4,000-$5,000; at used resale that premium has narrowed to $2,500-$3,000 — which means buyers, not sellers, currently benefit more.
Is now a bad time to buy a used 2024 Model Y?
Not necessarily — what matters is whether the 60-day forecast band is flat, falling, or rising. If our model shows a flat-to-rising P50, the downside risk over your first ownership year is low. If it's still falling, waiting 60-90 days could save $1,500-$2,500.
Pin the Model Y trajectory before your next decision
See the live 60-day forecast band, weekly market refresh, and price alerts for every CarCast-tracked vehicle.
Last updated May 8, 2026. Forecast refreshes weekly from live dealer listings.
Forecasts and trend classifications are informational analytics only and do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to purchase, hold, or sell any vehicle. Individual market conditions vary.