Current Used Car Market Trends — July 2026: Full Analysis
A monthly read on where used car prices are heading in the United States, generated from CarCast's live AI forecasts and the most recent Manheim wholesale + BLS retail data. Updated automatically each month.
Used car prices in July 2026 are holding flat on average — the segment-level forecasts across 1138 vehicles point to a 30-day aggregate change of -0.0%. That is the headline number every dealer, lender, and shopper wants to see, but it hides a great deal of segment-by-segment variation. As is almost always the case in the used market, the average is the least interesting number on the page. The interesting numbers live in the tails.
What's rising in July 2026
The forecast model flagged these vehicles as the strongest risers in July 2026:
- 2020 Ferrari GTC4Lusso, a shooting brake, with a 30-day forecast of +242.1%.
- 1996 Ford Bronco, a classic, with a 30-day forecast of +83.5%.
- 2019 Ferrari Purosangue, a suv, with a 30-day forecast of +69.3%.
- 2022 Ferrari 812 Superfast, a supercar, with a 30-day forecast of +60.0%.
- 1991 Toyota Land Cruiser, a classic, with a 30-day forecast of +59.3%.
Concentration in shooting brake bodies on the rising side is a useful tell: in the modern used market, a single body-style category usually leads the cycle. Buyers of these vehicles right now are paying near the top of the recent range, with the forecast suggesting more upside before the segment cools.
What's softening in July 2026
On the other side of the ledger, these vehicles are projected to give back the most ground over the next 30 days:
- 2021 Ferrari 296 GTS, a supercar, with a 30-day forecast of -85.7%.
- 2022 Ferrari 296 GTS, a supercar, with a 30-day forecast of -80.1%.
- 2020 Lamborghini Huracan STO, a supercar, with a 30-day forecast of -78.6%.
- 2018 Lamborghini Huracan STO, a supercar, with a 30-day forecast of -77.6%.
- 2019 Bentley Bentayga, a suv, with a 30-day forecast of -68.6%.
When a forecast model marks a segment Softening, the typical cause is one of three things: a fresh model-year arrival compressing residuals on the previous generation, a rotation in consumer demand toward a different body style, or an inventory build-up at the wholesale level that hasn't yet flowed through to dealer listings. Buyers in these segments have room to wait; sellers should price aggressively.
The macro picture
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index — the wholesale benchmark most of the industry tracks — is up 0.3% month-over-month entering July 2026, with the latest index reading at 212.6. On the retail side, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' used-car CPI is down 1.8% year-over-year. Together those two series tell us where wholesale and retail are diverging — which is where dealer margin lives.
CarCast's segment forecasts weight both signals. When MUVVI is moving but the retail CPI lags, dealers can usually catch a few weeks of margin before the consumer notices; when CPI is moving and MUVVI is steady, that's a sign demand-side pressure is doing the work and the wholesale unwind may follow. Body-style read for July 2026: supercars skew softening, classics skew rising, suvs are mixed, shooting brakes skew rising.
What buyers should watch in July 2026
For shoppers, the practical framing is simple. If the vehicle you want is in the Rising column above, the price you see today is probably not getting better in the short term — buy now or change your shortlist. If it's in the Softening column, you have room to wait two to four weeks and re-check. For the long "holding value" middle, the right question is supply local to you, not the national trend.
For dealers, the read is inverted. Rising segments are appraisal-tight: get aggressive on acquisitions while the forecast supports it. Softening segments need to move; mark them down a step before the rest of the market sees it. The full segment forecasts, including P10 / P50 / P90 confidence bands, are available on each vehicle page.
How these forecasts are calculated
Every weekend CarCast runs an 8-week forecast on every tracked segment using a 200-million-parameter time-series foundation model. Inputs are 52+ weeks of weekly listing-level price aggregates (median, P10, P90), MUVVI wholesale, BLS retail CPI, and segment- specific inventory depth. Each segment is then classified Rising (forecast change above +1.5% over 30 days), Stable (within ±1.5%), or Softening(below -1.5%). The classifications are informational analytics, not financial advice. They're built to help buyers and dealers time decisions, not to guarantee outcomes.
Previous months
Compare July 2026 against past months — same methodology, archived for the historical record:
- Used Car Market Trends — June 2026
- Used Car Market Trends — May 2026
- Used Car Market Trends — April 2026
This editorial section is generated from CarCast's live snapshot data each month. The numbers above are pulled from the most recent forecast pass on July 2026; the narrative around them follows a fixed structure so the analysis stays comparable across months. Updated automatically when new snapshots land.