The used car market isn't falling evenly. When we sort CarCast's latest forecasts by price, a pattern shows up: the more a vehicle costs, the weaker its outlook. Cheap cars are holding value. Cars above $35,000 are where most of the softening is.
The timing matches a shift in borrowing costs. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%–4% on September 16, its first increase since 2023. Since then, average used auto loan rates have risen for five straight weeks, reaching 6.751% APR on September 30. On the wholesale side, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell to 205.9 in September, down 1.1% from August and 0.6% from a year earlier. Cox Automotive also cut its year-end outlook from about +2% to about +0.2%.
Here's how that shows up in CarCast's AI-powered forecasts, which were run October 11.
Which data did we use?
We included only segments with at least 500 listing observations in the past four weeks and fresh data from the last two weeks. We left out exotics, where thin listings produce outliers. That leaves 659 segments representing more than 1.8 million listing observations.
Across that set, the average 8-week forecast is −0.26%. Our proprietary AI rates 41 segments Buy, 522 Hold and 96 Sell.
Do cheaper used cars hold value better?
Yes, and the pattern is very consistent:
| Current price | Segments | Avg 8-week forecast | Rising over 1% | Softening over 1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $10,000 | 60 | +0.19% | 13 | 9 |
| $10,000–$15,000 | 116 | +0.16% | 29 | 24 |
| $15,000–$20,000 | 123 | −0.17% | 18 | 26 |
| $20,000–$25,000 | 105 | −0.25% | 14 | 28 |
| $25,000–$35,000 | 132 | −0.39% | 13 | 34 |
| $35,000–$50,000 | 77 | −0.91% | 6 | 28 |
| $50,000 and up | 46 | −0.70% | 4 | 15 |
The two cheapest bands are the only ones with positive averages. In the $35,000–$50,000 band, softening segments outnumber rising ones by more than 4 to 1.
Cox Automotive's September release points the same way: older, more affordable vehicles depreciated less because demand for them stayed strong.
Why would higher rates hit pricier cars harder?
Most buyers shop by monthly payment, not sticker price. A rate increase adds more to the payment on a bigger loan. At the 6.751% benchmark rate, with a 60-month term and no down payment:
- A $20,000 used car costs about $394 a month
- A $35,000 used car costs about $689 a month
Many buyers pay much more than the benchmark. Experian's Q2 2026 data put the average used car loan rate across all borrowers at 11.19%. At that rate, the same $35,000 car costs about $764 a month. That's why each rate increase pushes some buyers out of the upper price bands first and toward cheaper cars. That shift is what the table above reflects.
Why are used trucks and SUVs softening?
Cox reports that demand for large pickups and SUVs fell in September as fuel costs weighed on the market, with diesel at record highs. Our forecasts agree, broken down by body style and price:
| Body style | Under $20K | $20K–$35K | $35K+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sedan | +0.21% | −0.04% | −1.03% |
| SUV | −0.11% | −0.36% | −0.70% |
| Truck | −0.10% | −0.49% | −0.77% |
Late-model full-size pickups have some of the clearest softening signals in our data, and they're backed by heavy listing volume:
| Truck | Current median | 8-week forecast | Listings (4 wks) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Ford F-150 XLT | $34,691 | −3.05% | 12,222 |
| 2022 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 LT | $32,100 | −2.96% | 4,394 |
| 2023 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 LT | $34,764 | −2.86% | 10,720 |
| 2023 Ford F-150 XLT | $38,890 | −2.82% | 32,328 |
| 2024 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 LT | $36,185 | −2.54% | 11,914 |
| 2024 Ford F-150 XLT | $41,773 | −2.17% | 19,819 |
On a 2023 F-150 XLT, a 2.82% drop is roughly $1,100 over eight weeks. The 2023 Chevrolet Tahoe LS at $40,829 has the steepest forecast among well-listed SUVs over $35,000, at −5.58%. That's about $2,300.
There are exceptions. The 2018 Silverado 1500 LT at about $21,600 is forecast to rise 1.44% on 8,009 listings. The 2015 Toyota Tacoma Base is up 3.76%. Older trucks at lower prices are holding up much better than late-model ones.
Which used cars are still rising?
Every one of the 10 strongest well-listed forecasts below $20,000 is a sedan or crossover priced under $17,000:
- 2014 Nissan Sentra SV, $6,500: +5.72%
- 2019 Hyundai Sonata SE, $11,999: +5.62%
- 2017 Nissan Sentra SV, $8,362: +4.49%
- 2018 Ford Edge SEL, $13,290: +4.02%
- 2016 Subaru Outback Limited, $12,925: +3.92%
- 2017 Honda Pilot EX-L, $16,795: +3.59%
- 2016 Acura MDX Technology, $14,495: +3.23%
These are family cars and commuters priced where a monthly payment stays manageable, or where a buyer can pay cash. That's the same demand our fall 2026 compact car buyer's guide found in the Corolla, Sentra and Elantra.
What about used EVs?
Our data differs from the wholesale picture here. Cox reports that EV values rose in September as high gas prices supported demand for fuel-efficient vehicles. Our forward-looking 8-week forecasts for 93 well-listed EV segments average −1.05%. EVs over $35,000 average −1.20%, led by luxury models like the 2024 Mercedes-Benz EQE SUV (−4.68%), the 2024 Audi Q8 e-tron (−3.78%) and the 2024 BMW iX (−3.28%). Several affordable EVs are rising, including the 2024 Toyota bZ4X (+2.26%) and the 2024 Volkswagen ID.4 (+1.85%).
The price gradient holds for EVs too. Luxury EVs are taking the hit, while affordable ones are holding up.
What should buyers, sellers and dealers do?
Buyers: If you need a truck or a larger SUV, waiting likely helps. Our forecasts point lower for late-model F-150s, Silverados and Tahoes through early December. If you're shopping under $15,000, waiting doesn't buy you much, because those prices are flat to rising.
Sellers: Selling an affordable sedan or crossover now is fine; demand is solid. Selling a 2022–2024 full-size pickup sooner probably beats selling later.
Dealers: Build inventory toward the price bands buyers can still finance. Late-model pickups and luxury EVs over $35,000 have the most downside in our forecasts this quarter.
You can search any vehicle on CarCast for its forecast, signal and listing depth, compare our numbers with KBB and Edmunds, or see what each CarCast plan includes.