Used pickups have had a rough fall. Wholesale prices firmed a bit in early October. The mid-October Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose 0.7% to 207.4, and compact cars were up 5.6% year over year. But Cox Automotive's Jonathan Gregory said the same release showed that "pickups remain soft," and he credited the firmer values to "leaner inventory rather than stronger buying."
CarCast's listing data shows how soft. We compared median asking prices in June with the most recent four weeks for the four best-selling used pickups, model years 2019 through 2024. Every one of those 24 model years is cheaper today. One truck has held up noticeably better than the others: the Toyota Tacoma.
How much have used truck prices fallen since June?
Each figure compares the average median asking price in June 2026 with the four weeks ending October 18. We included only model years with thousands of listings in both periods.
| Model year | Ford F-150 XLT | Chevy Silverado 1500 LT | Toyota Tundra SR5 | Toyota Tacoma SR5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | −4.3% | −7.3% | −5.4% | −3.0% |
| 2023 | −5.6% | −5.5% | −5.6% | −2.5% |
| 2022 | −7.8% | −6.2% | −5.7% | −2.8% |
| 2021 | −6.4% | −4.0% | −4.2% | −4.6% |
| 2020 | −5.7% | −4.1% | −2.1% | −3.1% |
| 2019 | −3.8% | −3.4% | −4.1% | −0.3% |
| Average | −5.6% | −5.1% | −4.5% | −2.7% |
The 2022 F-150 XLT had the biggest drop, from about $37,534 in June to $34,625. That's roughly $2,900 in four months on a truck that trades in high volume, with more than 12,000 listing observations in the past four weeks alone.
The Tacoma lost about half as much as the full-size trucks. The 2019 Tacoma SR5 barely moved (−0.3%). Outside data shows the same trend: CarGurus' Tacoma price tracker shows the nameplate down just 1.76% over 90 days.
Is the decline over, or are truck prices still falling?
Our AI-powered forecasts say the drop isn't over for full-size trucks, but the Tacoma has stopped falling. Here are the 60-day forecasts, run October 18:
| Model year | F-150 XLT | Silverado 1500 LT | Tundra SR5 | Tacoma SR5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | −1.93% | −3.05% | −1.50% | +0.04% |
| 2023 | −1.90% | −4.44% | −1.92% | −0.05% |
| 2022 | −2.34% | −4.16% | −1.71% | −0.16% |
| 2021 | −2.21% | −1.47% | −1.67% | −0.51% |
| 2020 | −2.21% | −0.86% | −1.22% | −0.01% |
| 2019 | −1.35% | −3.17% | −0.32% | +0.10% |
| Average | −1.99% | −2.86% | −1.39% | −0.10% |
The Silverado has the weakest outlook. The 2023 Silverado 1500 LT is forecast to fall another 4.44%, or about $1,500 on today's $34,435 median, on top of the 5.5% it has already lost since June. The 2022 is close behind at −4.16%.
All six Tacoma model years are forecast to stay within about half a percent of today's prices. Its forecasts are tighter than any other truck in this set.
Why is the Tacoma holding value better than full-size trucks?
The data points to three likely reasons:
- Lower price: The 2019–2024 Tacoma SR5 lists for about $28,000 to $36,000. A comparable Tundra SR5 runs $33,000 to $42,000. Last week's price-band analysis found that forecasts weaken as prices rise, now that loan rates are higher. The Tacoma sits lower on that ladder.
- Better fuel economy: Cox has pointed to persistently elevated gas prices as a reason that fuel efficiency and affordability are driving which segments hold up. A midsize truck benefits from that more than a half-ton does.
- Less late-model supply: In the past four weeks we logged about 4,900 listings for the 2024 Tacoma SR5, compared with about 12,100 for the 2024 Silverado LT and 19,400 for the 2024 F-150 XLT. With fewer late-model Tacomas for sale, there's less pressure on its prices.
Do older trucks hold value better?
Mostly, yes. Across all well-listed gas and diesel pickups in our data, here's how the forecasts break down by age:
| Vintage | Segments | Avg 60-day forecast | Avg price | Rising | Falling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022–2025 | 34 | −1.15% | $38,965 | 7 | 27 |
| 2018–2021 | 33 | −0.64% | $27,574 | 10 | 23 |
| 2017 and older | 20 | +0.13% | $19,122 | 12 | 8 |
The oldest trucks are the only group with more risers than decliners. Examples include the 2018 Silverado 1500 LT (+1.40%), the 2016 GMC Sierra 1500 SLT (+1.92%) and the 2015 Toyota Tacoma Base (+2.73%).
There's one exception. The 2019 Silverado LT is forecast at −3.17%, which is weaker than the 2020 and 2021. Older doesn't guarantee safety, so check the specific model year.
One caution on methodology: we left the 2014–2018 model years out of the June comparison above. Our listing coverage for those years was thin in June and only expanded later, so a June-to-October comparison for them wouldn't be reliable.
What should truck buyers and sellers do?
If you're buying a 2022–2024 Silverado or F-150: Waiting probably pays off. Our forecasts point to another 2–4% drop over the next 60 days. Use that in negotiation, especially on the 2022 and 2023 Silverado LT.
If you're buying a Tacoma: Don't expect a holiday discount. Prices have mostly stopped falling. Buy when you find the right truck.
If you're selling a late-model full-size truck: Selling sooner likely beats selling later. A two-month delay on a 2023 Silverado LT could cost about $1,500 at the current forecast.
If you're trading in an older truck: 2017-and-older pickups are holding value, so they're good trade-in equity right now.
You can search any truck on CarCast for its 60-day forecast and listing depth, compare our numbers with KBB and Edmunds, or see what's included in each CarCast plan.