The Subaru Outback keeps showing up on our weekly winners list. In last week's market forecast, the 2020 Outback Base was one of only ten mainstream segments projected to gain more than 4% over the next two months. The 2019 Base showed up on the same list. This week, we're doing what we should have done a while ago — a full Outback deep-dive, model year by model year, trim by trim, using every current CarCast forecast for the nameplate.
If you're shopping an Outback right now, or trying to time a trade-in, this is the picture the data actually shows.
The current Outback map
Here is every Subaru Outback segment CarCast currently tracks, with 8-week forecasts pulled from our proprietary AI system on July 19, 2026:
| Year | Trim | Current price | 8-week forecast | Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Premium | $26,999 | $27,111 | +0.41% | Stable |
| 2023 | Base | $21,498 | $21,168 | −1.53% | Softening |
| 2022 | Premium | $22,500 | $22,276 | −1.00% | Stable |
| 2022 | Base | $19,794 | $19,807 | +0.07% | Stable |
| 2021 | Premium | $21,780 | $21,766 | −0.07% | Stable |
| 2021 | Base | $21,995 | $22,164 | +0.77% | Stable |
| 2020 | Base | $18,990 | $19,808 | +4.31% | Rising |
| 2019 | Base | $17,098 | $17,620 | +3.05% | Rising |
Three things jump out immediately.
First — the 2019 and 2020 Base trims are the story. Both are flagged as Rising, both with meaningfully positive forecasts. The 2020 Base is our strongest Outback signal at +4.31%, and it stretches further out: the 12-week forecast for that same segment is +5.38%. It's not just a two-month bounce; it's a durable trajectory.
Second — the 2023 Base is the only Outback in our database with a Softening signal. −1.53% over 8 weeks against a nameplate where most trims are hovering near flat. That's not a Subaru problem or an Outback problem. It's a specific-vintage problem, and we'll unpack why below.
Third — Premium trims are underperforming their Base-trim counterparts in the same model year. The 2021 Base is +0.77% while the 2021 Premium is −0.07%. The 2022 Base is +0.07% while the 2022 Premium is −1.00%. That inversion is the single most interesting pattern in the Outback data right now.
Why entry trims are winning
The Base-vs-Premium inversion in the Outback isn't a fluke — it's a pattern that shows up across our entire 2018-2022 mainstream universe. Across 100 entry-tier segments (Base, LE, LX, L, S, SE) in that range, the average 8-week forecast is +0.16%. Across 197 higher trims, it's −0.18%. Across 47 mid-trims, it's −0.65%.
The Outback is just the cleanest example of a broader shift: buyers who got priced out of $27,000-plus SUVs by the $26,918 average used-car listing price are moving down-market. The 2020 Outback Base at $18,990 is exactly the vehicle they can still stretch to. That demand pressure is what our forecast is picking up.
Compare that to the Outback's Subaru siblings and it becomes even clearer. Across the entire Subaru lineup in our database:
- Outback avg 8-week forecast: +0.75% (8 segments)
- Solterra: −0.06% (4 segments)
- Crosstrek: −0.27% (5 segments)
- Forester: −0.34% (6 segments)
The Outback is the strongest nameplate in the entire Subaru portfolio right now — and Base trims are the reason.
The 2023 Base problem
The Outback's only softening segment deserves its own explanation. The 2023 Base is priced at $21,498 today. That's more than the 2020 Base ($18,990), which is on the rising list — and it's a lot more than the 2019 Base ($17,098).
But here's the issue: KBB's current 2022 Outback Wagon 4D fair purchase price is $19,900, and their 2026 Touring resale value sits at $39,400. Slot the 2023 Base in between and $21,498 looks a couple grand rich for what it is. Our forecast is essentially calling that gap: over the next two months, we expect it to compress back toward the trajectory the older Base trims are on.
If you already own a 2023 Base, this isn't a sell-everything signal — it's an 8-week directional call. If you're shopping one, we'd wait or negotiate hard.
How the Outback compares to Toyota RAV4 LE
The RAV4 LE is the closest competitor for the Outback Base — both are the "affordability tier" AWD entry point for their brand. Here's how they line up for the same vintage:
| Year | RAV4 LE forecast | Outback Base forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | −0.18% | +3.05% |
| 2020 | −0.25% | +4.31% |
| 2021 | −0.12% | +0.77% |
| 2022 | −1.02% | +0.07% |
The Outback wins every single year-over-year matchup. That's not a Subaru-fandom talking point — it's what our forecasts show, and it lines up with the Subaru resale-value case that outlets like Test Miles and KOIN have been making all month.
The buy signals
If you take the Outback data at face value, the two clearest actions from our July 19 forecasts are:
Buy signal: 2020 Outback Base at $18,990. Predicted price in 8 weeks: $19,808. Predicted in 12 weeks: $20,012. Rising Base pattern, still under $20K, and it's the strongest single Outback trajectory in our database.
Buy signal: 2019 Outback Base at $17,098. Predicted 8-week price: $17,620. Same rising pattern, same Base trim advantage, lower entry point.
Hold signal on 2021, 2022, and 2024 Outbacks. Not moving fast in either direction. If you own one, no reason to trade out. If you're shopping, price them like they'll be worth the same in September.
Softening watch: 2023 Base. Not a crisis, but the only Outback where we'd let a seller sit for a couple of weeks rather than pay the current ask.
The full 8-week and 12-week forecast for every Outback trim we track — plus every other Subaru in our database and every competitor mentioned above — is available on CarCast. You can also see how we compare against KBB and MMR on any specific segment.
See the full Subaru Outback forecast on CarCast →