Weekly Used Car Market Forecast: July 14, 2026 — Sedans Beat SUVs, Trucks Lead the Softening

The used car market spent most of the spring pushing prices higher across every segment. That's over. This week's CarCast forecasts — pulled fresh from 1,138 vehicle segments — show the first clear break in that pattern. Sedans and compact SUVs are still nudging up. Trucks are softening across every major brand. And the brand leaderboard has been scrambled.

Here's what the data says heading into the second half of July.

Signal mix: the market has become picky

Across our full 1,138-segment coverage universe (which now includes supercars and collectors), the current 8-week forecast breakdown is:

• 191 segments flagged as Rising
• 744 segments flagged as Stable
• 203 segments flagged as Softening

That is a very different regime than we were in six weeks ago, when the split was 53 / 739 / 10. The pool of clearly-softening segments has grown 20x. The market isn't rolling over — but it is finally sorting winners from losers. That's exactly what the wholesale data has been signaling. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index landed at 212.9 in June — up 2.1% year over year but down 1% from the multi-year high set in March. Non-adjusted wholesale prices actually fell 1.3% month over month. Retail has been slower to react, but our segment-level forecasts are picking up the divergence.

Body-style rankings: sedans quietly leading

Filtering to the mainstream body styles most shoppers care about, the 8-week average forecast breaks down like this:

The sedan resurgence lines up with CARFAX's June index, which showed used car prices climbing 2% month over month and 7.6% year over year — the strongest of any mainstream segment. Trucks, meanwhile, are the clear laggard: 80 of 115 truck segments in our database are forecast to soften over the next 8 weeks, with just 34 forecast to rise.

Brand leaderboard (mainstream vehicles only)

Excluding supercars and classics, brand-level 8-week averages tell a clean story about who's winning right now:

Rising fastest:

1. Subaru — +0.51% avg (23 segments)
2. Mercedes-Benz — +0.38% (35 segments)
3. Kia — +0.35% (33 segments)
4. Genesis — +0.25% (12 segments)
5. Lexus — +0.17% (23 segments)
6. Hyundai — +0.14% (36 segments)
7. Chevrolet — +0.13% (57 segments)

Softening fastest:

• Rivian — −1.88% (9 segments)
• Cadillac — −0.98% (5 segments)
• GMC — −0.68% (19 segments)
• Ford — −0.43% (59 segments)
• BMW — −0.34% (29 segments)
• Toyota — −0.32% (79 segments)

Toyota showing up in the softening list is the surprise. Its huge segment coverage (79 mainstream trims) means the average absorbs weakness from RAV4 LE and Camry LE trims that were bid up too aggressively in the spring. It's not a Toyota problem — it's a "which trim you own" problem, and this is where segment-level forecasting starts to earn its keep vs. brand-level averages.

Top rising mainstream segments this week

The individual segments with the strongest 8-week forecasts across sedans, SUVs, and trucks:

1. 2019 Kia Forte FE — +8.77% (current price $11,229)
2. 2026 Kia EV6 — +8.53% ($43,784)
3. 2021 Hyundai Elantra SE — +8.19% ($15,822)
4. 2023 Ford Bronco Raptor — +8.12% ($65,459)
5. 2020 Subaru Outback Base — +7.45% ($18,799)
6. 2020 Chevrolet Suburban LS — +6.87% ($23,493)
7. 2020 Hyundai Sonata SE — +5.81% ($15,848)
8. 2022 Chevrolet Tahoe LS — +5.12% ($39,239)
9. 2019 Subaru Outback Base — +4.81% ($17,240)
10. 2026 Subaru Solterra — +4.04% ($38,998)

Three themes jump off that list. First, sub-$20K compact sedans (Forte, Elantra, Sonata) — the exact "affordability tier" that CarGurus flagged as the biggest 2026 mover. Buyers priced out of $30K+ vehicles have moved down-market, and prices are catching up.

Second, EVs are back. Kia EV6, Subaru Solterra, and a handful of Chevrolet EV segments show up on our rising list — consistent with the 12% YoY jump in used EV prices that Cox Automotive reported for June.

Third, the Subaru Outback in Base trim is one of the most consistent rising segments in our database — both 2019 and 2020 model years are up meaningfully in the 8-week outlook.

Top softening segments to watch

On the other side of the ledger:

1. 2025 Tesla Model X — −7.52% ($91,985)
2. 2022 Subaru Forester Base — −5.67% ($20,326)
3. 2021 Ford Bronco Big Bend — −4.64% ($36,304)
4. 2022 Kia Forte FE — −4.48% ($16,990)
5. 2023 Hyundai Elantra SE — −3.42% ($18,998)
6. 2019 Chevrolet Tahoe LS — −3.06% ($22,997)
7. 2020 Kia Sorento LX — −3.03% ($14,544)
8. 2018 Toyota 4Runner TRD Pro — −2.32% ($35,498)
9. 2022 Chevrolet Colorado LT — −2.09% ($22,656) — see full forecast
10. 2019 Toyota Camry LE — −2.00% ($18,292)

Notice the pattern that jumps out on Kia Forte and Hyundai Elantra: older model years are the rising ones, newer model years are the softening ones. That's classic normalization — the used market is compressing the premium newer trims commanded during the spring squeeze.

Truck-by-truck: the softening is broad

Because the truck story is the biggest single takeaway this week, here's the brand-level truck breakdown from our 115 truck segments:

Only Ram is positive. Every other truck brand in our database is projected to soften over the next 8 weeks. This is consistent with retail data — Trading Economics' breakdown of the Manheim June report showed pickup wholesale prices down 0.3% year over year, a full swing from the truck-led rally that carried Q1.

What this means for the next 60 days

Three practical takeaways:

If you're a buyer looking at trucks: you're finally on the good side of the tape. Wait 6-8 weeks and expect better pricing across F-150, Silverado, Colorado, Tacoma, and 4Runner-class SUVs. See our full F-150 forecast and Silverado 1500 outlook for specifics.

If you're a buyer looking at compact sedans or older Kia/Hyundai: you missed the bottom. Prices are still rising. Move fast or pivot to an SUV alternative.

If you're a dealer watching wholesale exposure: the Rivian, Cadillac, and Bentley softening we're seeing at the top of the market is likely to work its way down into used-luxury mainstream over the next quarter. Trim EV inventory holds accordingly.

The full segment-by-segment 8-week forecast is available on CarCast — including every trim mentioned above and 1,100+ others we didn't have room to include here. If you'd like weekly updates like this in your inbox, subscribe here or compare CarCast against KBB and MMR.

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