Mazda was the strongest mainstream brand in our September 22 weekly forecast, and the Mazda3 was the main reason. It's also the car in our data that needs the most context. So this deep-dive covers the forecast for each model year and how much listing data sits behind each one.
The short version: the Mazda3 still looks healthier than most compact sedans heading into fall. But the biggest headline numbers, especially for the 2021 and 2022 model years, rest on thin data, and we're weighting them accordingly.
Why is the Mazda3 getting attention right now?
The used compact-car segment is one of the few places still showing strength. The mid-September Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell to 206.2, its first year-over-year decline of 2026, and CBT News reported that compact cars and EVs were the only major segments still above year-ago wholesale values.
Demand for new Mazda3s is strong too. According to USA Today, Mazda sold 4,427 Mazda3 units in August, its best August ever and up 91.7% year over year. The new 2026 Mazda3 starts at $24,550 MSRP before destination, which puts a firm ceiling over late-model used prices.
What is CarCast forecasting for each Mazda3 model year?
Here are our latest 8-week forecasts (run September 27), with the weekly listing volume behind each segment:
| Model year | Current median | 8-week forecast | Change | Signal | Weekly listings (Sept) | Data confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $22,440 | $22,300 | −0.62% | Hold | none since April | Stale |
| 2022 | $19,990 | $21,978 | +9.94% | Buy | none since Aug 3 | Stale |
| 2021 | $16,621 | $18,852 | +13.43% | Buy | 7–10 | Thin |
| 2020 | $17,717 | $17,595 | −0.68% | Hold | 35–39 | Solid |
| 2019 | $16,586 | $17,184 | +3.61% | Buy | 31–34 | Solid |
Only two rows here are reliable: 2019 and 2020. Here's why we're discounting the others.
- 2022 (+9.94%): We featured this number in last week's forecast. It hasn't changed in six weeks because the segment hasn't received a new listing observation since August 3, and the last one covered only five cars. It's a stale signal, not a fresh one.
- 2021 (+13.43%): This segment has only 7 to 10 listings a week, and its median has swung between $15,995 and $19,493 since June. The latest median, $15,995 on September 28, is near the bottom of that range. Our forecast is mostly predicting a rebound to the typical price, which is reasonable, but a sample this small can shift a lot from week to week.
- 2023 (−0.62%): We have no current listing flow for this model year, so we don't treat it as a live forecast.
What does real price history show for the 2019 and 2020 Mazda3?
These two model years have steady listing volume from June through September, so their history is worth reading closely.
2020 Mazda3: The median asking price rose from $16,391 on June 1 to $17,985 on September 28, up about 9.7%. The low point was $16,500 in late July. Prices have been moving up since mid-August even as the broader market cooled. Our forecast for the next eight weeks is roughly flat (−0.68%), meaning we think most of that recovery has already happened.
2019 Mazda3: Prices peaked at $18,225 in late July and have drifted down since, to $16,588 on September 28. Our forecast calls for a move back to about $17,184 (+3.61%). With 31 to 34 listings a week, it's the most credible Buy signal in the Mazda3 lineup right now.
In practice, the 2020 has already recovered and the 2019 hasn't yet. If you're looking at the two side by side, a 2019 at or below $16,600 is the better entry point today.
How does the Mazda3 compare with the Civic, Corolla and Elantra?
Here are 2019–2023 compact sedans by average 8-week forecast, alongside September listing volume:
| Model (2019–2023) | Segments | Avg 8-week forecast | Avg current price | Sept listing observations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mazda3 | 5 | +5.14% | $18,671 | 309 |
| Kia Forte | 5 | +1.40% | $14,088 | 809 |
| Volkswagen Jetta | 5 | +0.36% | $15,700 | 5,255 |
| Nissan Sentra | 5 | +0.02% | $14,835 | 3,996 |
| Honda Civic | 7 | −0.16% | $19,903 | 11,196 |
| Toyota Corolla | 5 | −0.25% | $17,595 | 21,242 |
| Hyundai Elantra | 5 | −0.34% | $15,025 | 5,853 |
The Mazda3's +5.14% average is inflated by the thin 2021 and stale 2022 rows. Using only the 2019, 2020, and 2023 segments, the average drops to about +0.77%. That still beats the Civic, Corolla and Elantra, but it's close to the Forte and not far ahead of the Jetta.
Volume matters here too. We logged about 69 times as many Corolla listing observations as Mazda3 observations in September. Mazda3 prices move more because fewer cars are for sale, which is part of why the model has held up. A single well-priced listing can reset the local market.
Should you buy a used Mazda3 now or wait?
If you're buying: Focus on the 2019. It's the only Mazda3 model year with both enough listing volume and a positive forecast, and its current median sits below its summer peak. The 2020 has already recovered, so don't expect it to get cheaper this fall. For 2021 and newer, set your own price using comparable listings near you instead of our forecast. Search the Mazda3 on CarCast to see the live comps.
If you're selling a 2020: The market has already moved in your favor. Prices are up almost 10% since June and our forecast is flat from here, so listing now makes sense.
If you're choosing between a Mazda3, Civic and Corolla: The Mazda3 has had better short-term price momentum. But Civic and Corolla forecasts rest on far more data, so they're more predictable. If resale certainty matters more to you than upside, the Toyota and Honda are the safer bets, even with slightly negative forecasts.
You can compare our forecasts with KBB and Edmunds for any trim, or see what's included on each CarCast plan.