The used market crossed a line this week. The mid-September Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index came in at 206.2, down 1% from August and — for the first time this year — below where it was a year ago. Not by much (−0.4% YoY), but the year-over-year premium that carried wholesale values through the first half of 2026 is now officially gone.
Our CarCast forecast across 1,597 vehicle segments reflects the same shift, and adds detail Manheim's aggregate index can't: which specific vehicles are still rising, which are quietly starting to slip, and where the rotation is happening under the surface. Here is this week's weekly forecast, refreshed on September 20.
Signal mix trend
The four-week arc of our BUY / HOLD / SELL classifications tells the softening story more clearly than any macro chart:
| Week | BUY | HOLD | SELL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17 | 304 | 944 | 253 |
| Aug 24 | 184 | 1,199 | 182 |
| Aug 31 | 157 | 1,235 | 171 |
| Sep 7 | 157 | 1,198 | 206 |
| Sep 14 | 152 | 1,183 | 226 |
| Sep 20 | 158 | 1,208 | 231 |
The BUY cohort has more than halved over five weeks. The SELL cohort has grown every single week since August 31 and is now up 35% from its low. The HOLD bucket has expanded to hold most of the market. This is exactly what a market re-pricing to a new supply reality looks like — not a crash, but a widening tail of vehicles losing value while fewer are gaining.
Top mainstream risers (excluding data-quality noise)
Filtering exotics (Ferrari, McLaren, Rolls-Royce, etc., where thin listing data creates outliers) and looking at real transactable segments, our strongest current buy signals:
| Vehicle | Current price | 8-week forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Mazda3 Base | $19,990 | +9.94% |
| 2021 Mazda3 Base | $15,998 | +18.89% |
| 2012 BMW M3 (E90) | $34,777 | +23.85% |
| 2026 Volkswagen ID.4 | $40,719 | +14.18% |
| 2026 Kia EV6 | $41,706 | +14.06% |
| 2016 Porsche 911 Turbo S | $144,999 | +12.17% |
Two real themes here.
Mazda is the surprise brand of Q3 2026. At +2.18% average across 22 segments, it's the strongest mainstream brand in our data this week — well ahead of Nissan (+0.74%), Volkswagen (+0.72%), and Chevrolet (+0.27%). The Mazda3 in particular is the strongest late-model mainstream signal we have. This is consistent with what Cox Automotive is now flagging — compact cars and EVs are the only major segments still above year-ago wholesale values.
Mainstream EVs are recovering. The 2026 VW ID.4 and 2026 Kia EV6 are both forecast to gain more than 14% in the next eight weeks. This isn't a broad EV rally — luxury EVs remain weak (see below) — but the affordable BEV band that suffered most through 2024-2025 is stabilizing now that the federal tax credit is settled and off-lease inventory pressure is concentrated on premium models.
Top mainstream decliners
The soft side of the tape:
| Vehicle | Current price | 8-week forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Chevrolet Colorado LT | $20,785 | −8.03% |
| 2024 Tesla Model S | $90,095 | −7.92% |
| 2020 Toyota Prius LE | $21,635 | −7.51% |
| 2025 Polestar 3 | $49,950 | −6.92% |
| 2024 Genesis Electrified G80 | $43,974 | −6.88% |
| 2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E | $32,500 | −6.49% |
| 2018 Porsche 911 Turbo S | $176,897 | −24.7% |
Two patterns: midsize trucks and luxury EVs are the softest segments. The 2022 Colorado LT is our worst mainstream forecast this week. The Tesla Model S, Polestar 3, Genesis Electrified G80, and Mustang Mach-E all show up in the top-10 decliners — a continuation of the luxury EV depreciation story we've been tracking since August.
The 2020 Prius LE dropping 7.5% is interesting given that Toyota Hybrids elsewhere in the market are strong — but this specific trim/vintage is inside the off-lease window and comparable-mileage inventory is landing at once.
Brand rankings this week (mainstream only)
| Rank | Brand | Segs | Avg 8-week forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mazda | 22 | +2.18% |
| 2 | Nissan | 69 | +0.74% |
| 3 | Volkswagen | 19 | +0.72% |
| 4 | Chevrolet | 136 | +0.27% |
| 5 | Audi | 54 | +0.03% |
| 6 | Hyundai | 48 | −0.06% |
| 7 | Lexus | 31 | −0.06% |
| 8 | BMW | 46 | −0.08% |
| 9 | Jeep | 37 | −0.15% |
| 10 | Kia | 46 | −0.16% |
| … | Toyota | 120 | −0.31% |
| … | Ford | 118 | −0.53% |
| … | Porsche | 112 | −1.00% |
Toyota now sits mid-table at −0.31%, five straight weeks of persistent softening driven by mid-vintage RAV4 and Highlander segments coming off lease. Ford is one of the weakest mainstream brands at −0.53%. And Porsche is the softest brand in our database, dragged down by specific 911 Turbo S and GT2 RS vintages where auction outliers have compressed forecast values.
Segment rotations worth flagging
Muscle cars: rotation from Charger to Camaro. For most of the summer, Dodge Charger led the muscle rally. That has flipped:
- Camaro: +2.08% avg (18 segs, 11 rising)
- Mustang: +0.06% avg (30 segs)
- Corvette: +0.06% avg (23 segs)
- Charger: −0.23% avg (13 segs, only 6 rising)
The 2020 Charger SXT is still slightly positive (+1.45%), but the momentum has moved. Camaro is now the strongest muscle nameplate we track.
Full-size SUV: Escalade breakaway. Cadillac Escalade is +0.52% avg with 10 of 12 tracked segments rising — a clear outlier in a segment where Tahoe (−0.16%), Suburban (−1.05%), and Sequoia (−0.38%) are flat to soft. If you own an Escalade, this is a rare "still on the good side" luxury signal.
Compact crossover cool-down continues. As we laid out last week, the 2022-2023 compact SUV vintage remains the softest recent-model cohort in the market. That story is not reversing — it's the mechanical driver behind Ford's brand-level weakness and a large piece of why Manheim's aggregate just turned negative YoY.
The read for buyers, sellers, and dealers
Buyers: the tape is finally in your favor across more segments than it has been all year. The specific vehicles our forecast flags for the biggest near-term declines — 2022 Colorado LT, 2024 Tesla Model S, 2025 Polestar 3, 2024 Mach-E — are worth holding out on. If you can wait through October, you'll almost certainly transact lower. Check specific segments on CarCast before committing.
Sellers: if you own something in the strong pockets — Mazda3, Camaro, Escalade, 2020-2021 Subaru Outback, 2016-2020 Porsche 911 Turbo S — sell into the tape. Our forecast has them still rising or holding through the fall.
Dealers: the SELL cohort is the largest it's been in six weeks and still growing. Trim exposure to midsize trucks, mid-vintage Ford crossovers, luxury EVs at $40-60K, and any 2018-2021 Porsche 911 Turbo S / GT2 RS inventory where auction distortion is compressing wholesale bids.
You can pull the full 1,597-segment forecast — every trim, every vintage — on CarCast, and compare our forecasts head-to-head against KBB or Edmunds on any specific vehicle.
See the full weekly forecast on CarCast →