The Great Compact Crossover Cool-Down: Why 2022-2023 SUVs Are the Softest Segment in the Used Market

For four years, the compact crossover was the untouchable segment of the used market. Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-V, Nissan Rogue, Hyundai Tucson — the exact vehicles that spent 2022-2024 selling above sticker on used lots as pandemic-era supply constraints collided with family-hauler demand.

That era just ended. When we sliced our full 1,470-segment database this week by vehicle vintage and body class, one finding jumped out with unusual clarity: the 2022-2023 compact crossover cohort is the softest tier in our entire recent-vintage universe. Not luxury EVs. Not gas guzzlers. Not old sedans. Small SUVs coming off their first lease cycle.

Here is what the data actually shows, and why it's happening now.

The vintage breakdown that flipped

Grouping every compact and midsize crossover we track by model-year vintage:

Two things stand out.

One: the 2022-2023 vintage has the highest rate of softening. 27 of 39 crossover segments in that model-year bucket (69%) are forecast to soften over the next eight weeks. Compare that to muscle cars, where only 21% of segments are softening, or full-size SUVs, where only 9% are softening. The 2022-2023 compact-crossover softening rate is roughly 3x the market average for what should be a "boring family car" segment.

Two: this is a lease-cycle story. 2022-2023 is exactly the vintage that entered the market on 36-month leases and is now landing at auction. Edmunds' Q1 2026 report projected a 25.7% increase in off-lease volume for 2026 vs. 2025 — nearly half a million additional units. Dealership Guy's independent analysis put the total at 420,000 lease maturities across major brands, with volume peaking between May and September 2026. We are inside that window now.

The specific segments taking the hit

The 2022-2025 compact crossovers with the softest 8-week forecasts in our database:

1. 2022 Ford Escape SE — $19,177 → −3.16%
2. 2023 Ford Bronco Sport Base — $20,900 → −2.98%
3. 2022 Ford Bronco Sport Base — $20,081 → −2.02%
4. 2023 Hyundai Tucson SE — $21,285 → −1.91%
5. 2023 Nissan Rogue S — $20,146 → −1.90%
6. 2022 Subaru Forester Base — $20,391 → −1.80%
7. 2025 Chevrolet Equinox LT — $25,689 → −1.71%
8. 2024 Nissan Rogue SV — $21,003 → −1.20%
9. 2022 Nissan Rogue SV — $19,355 → −1.17%
10. 2023 Chevrolet Equinox LT — $21,159 → −1.01%
11. 2022 Jeep Grand Cherokee Limited — $26,367 → −0.99%
12. 2023 Subaru Forester Base — $23,716 → −0.99%
13. 2024 Ford Bronco Sport Big Bend — $26,001 → −0.98%

Ford is on the softening list four times. Nissan Rogue three times. Chevrolet Equinox and Subaru Forester twice each. The pattern isn't universal — it's concentrated in the entry-trim models of high-lease-penetration brands.

The brand-level view (2022-2025 only)

Aggregating our 2022-2025 crossover segments by nameplate:

The bottom five (Bronco Sport, Rogue, Equinox, Forester, Tucson) are all clearly softening. The top five (Cherokee, Crosstrek, CX-5, Pilot, RAV4) are holding value. Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V are essentially flat at +0.03% and +0.02%. That's a huge divergence from the softest Ford/Nissan/Chevrolet crossovers, and it matches what industry reporting has been highlighting — RAV4 and CR-V (especially the Hybrid variants) are the two nameplates the market keeps bidding up regardless of macro noise.

Why this is a lease-return story, not a demand story

The clearest evidence that this is supply-driven, not demand-driven: older-vintage compact crossovers are still rising, even as the 2022-2023 vintage bleeds.

The strongest older (2018-2021) crossover risers in our database:

• 2021 Subaru Outback Base — $20,098 → +5.91%
• 2020 Subaru Outback Base — $17,592 → +2.82%
• 2020 Nissan Rogue S — $15,300 → +2.33%
• 2018 Mazda CX-5 Grand Touring — $17,500 → +1.63%
• 2019 Mazda CX-5 Sport — $17,656 → +1.32%
• 2020 Mazda CX-5 Sport — $19,409 → +1.22%
• 2018 Honda CR-V EX-L — $19,667 → +0.80%

The 2020 Rogue S is up 2.33%. The 2023 Rogue S is down 1.90%. Same nameplate, same body style, same buyer demographic. The only meaningful difference is that the 2023 is coming off a fresh 36-month lease and the 2020 isn't. That is a textbook off-lease flood pattern.

Wholesale data supports it. Black Book has reported 2-3 year old compact SUVs down 13.1% at auction from Q1 2025 to April 2026 — the sharpest wholesale drop of any mainstream segment.

What this means for buyers and sellers

If you're shopping a 2022-2023 compact crossover: you are in the best negotiating position of any buyer in the current used market. Ford Bronco Sport, Nissan Rogue, Chevrolet Equinox, Hyundai Tucson — hold your bid, walk if the dealer won't budge, and know our forecast has them dropping another 1-3% in the next 60 days. Compare specific segments on CarCast before committing.

If you're shopping a RAV4 or CR-V: you're not going to catch this same wave. Toyota and Honda are the only two mainstream nameplates in our data essentially holding value across the 2022-2025 cohort, and the Hybrid variants are actually appreciating. Buy at ask.

If you own a 2020-2021 compact crossover: you're on the right side of the market. Older Outback Base, Rogue S, and Mazda CX-5 trims are all rising — you can trade with confidence, or hold for another cycle.

If you're a dealer holding 2022-2024 crossover inventory: move it. Bronco Sport, Rogue, Equinox, Tucson are the four nameplates our forecast has as clear sell signals. Dealership Guy's April analysis already flagged this same pattern — "sedans and smaller crossovers are landing below residual expectations."

The full trim-by-trim, year-by-year forecast for every crossover mentioned above — plus 1,400+ other segments across the market — is on CarCast. You can also see how our forecasts stack up against KBB or Edmunds on any specific vehicle.

See the full compact crossover forecast on CarCast →