The used electric vehicle market has quietly become the most bifurcated segment in the entire used-car ecosystem. On one end, the cheapest EVs are the hottest thing wholesale traders can buy — Manheim's June EV Index rose 12% year over year and used EVs under $20,000 are up 9.4% just in the first half of 2026. On the other end, the flagship luxury EVs are being priced like distressed inventory. Our own data shows some 2025 and 2026 model year luxury EVs projected to lose more than 5% in the next eight weeks alone.
Here's what CarCast's 206-segment EV forecast shows heading into August 2026, and what buyers on both ends of the market should actually do about it.
The split is stark
Our current 8-week forecasts by EV price band tell the whole story in one table:
| Price band | EV segments | Avg 8-week forecast | Strong risers (over 1%) | Strong decliners (under -1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $25K | 31 | -0.07% | 5 | 3 |
| $25K-$40K | 70 | +0.15% | 10 | 6 |
| $40K-$55K | 44 | -0.43% | 10 | 15 |
| $55K-$75K | 42 | -0.88% | 6 | 14 |
| $75K+ | 19 | +0.77% | 4 | 5 |
The $55K-$75K band is the sinkhole. It's where two-year lease returns of BMW iX, Volvo EX90, Cadillac Lyriq, Rivian R1S, and Genesis GV60 are landing right now, and it's where the softening is concentrated. The $75K+ tier looks positive on average, but it's just noise — a single 2025 Mercedes-Benz EQS SUV segment forecast at +22.74% is doing most of the lifting.
Compare that to what's happening at the affordable end and it's clear this isn't an EV weakness story — it's a luxury EV weakness story.
The mainstream EV boom (sub-$25K)
Our top forecast risers under $25,000 look like this:
- 2022 Nissan Leaf S: $15,349 → +3.61% (8-week forecast)
- 2021 Nissan Leaf S: $13,889 → +2.98%
- 2022 Chevrolet Bolt EV LT: $17,998 → +2.79%
- 2021 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus: $23,429 → +2.34%
- 2021 Polestar 2: $22,575 → +1.41%
- 2020 Nissan Leaf S: $13,749 → +0.98%
- 2021 Volkswagen ID.4 Pro: $19,991 → +0.91%
- 2022 Kia EV6 Light: $21,394 → +0.69%
This is exactly the pattern Recurrent Auto flagged in its Q3 report — the average used EV price index has fallen to $27,800 (down 32% year over year), but the sub-$25K tier is actively rising as budget-conscious buyers price out of new cars. CNBC reported that 21 of the 25 highest-volume used EV models rose in price during the first half of 2026, and Edmunds pegged the average 3-year-old EV transaction at $33,303, up 6% year to date. Our forecasts extend that trend forward another two months.
The Nissan Leaf is a particularly clean signal — three model years (2020, 2021, 2022) all rising, all under $16,000. These are exactly the kind of "under $20K, 2-year-newer, 40,000-fewer-miles" bargains buyers are chasing right now.
The luxury EV collapse ($55K+)
At the other end of the forecast, the softest segments in our entire EV universe:
- 2026 Genesis GV60: $68,303 → -12.00%
- 2026 Rivian R1S: $88,553 → -10.52%
- 2025 BMW iX: $64,585 → -6.35%
- 2024 Genesis Electrified G80: $42,348 → -5.53%
- 2025 Volvo EX90: $57,038 → -5.18%
- 2025 Cadillac Lyriq: $48,998 → -4.87%
- 2025 BMW i7: $94,216 → -3.80%
- 2023 Tesla Model S: $58,000 → -3.69%
- 2025 Mercedes-Benz EQE SUV: $56,413 → -3.12%
These aren't small numbers. A 5% two-month decline on a $57,000 EX90 is roughly $2,850. A 10.5% decline on a nearly-new R1S is closer to $9,300. And these are our forward forecasts, not lagged retail data — the market hasn't finished pricing this in.
The macro backdrop supports it. Third-party data has luxury 2-year retention at just 54%, roughly ten points below the broader EV average. Carscoops reported a 2025 Cadillac Escalade IQ selling for $105,000 with 13,000 miles — a $47,000 loss on a $152,000 MSRP in about a year. Our forecasts suggest that pattern is broadening, not narrowing.
Brand-level: Cadillac and Genesis in the danger zone
Aggregating our 206 EV segments up to the brand level tells a similar story:
EV brands with the worst average forecast (all trims, all body styles):
- Cadillac: -2.16% (4 segments, avg price $47,693)
- Genesis: -1.28% (6 segments, avg price $42,662)
- Volvo (EX90/EX40): -1.05% (4 segments)
- BMW: -0.83% (17 segments, avg price $61,211)
- Chevrolet: -0.67% (16 segments) — mostly older Bolt EVs
- Rivian: -0.66% (9 segments, avg price $68,650)
EV brands with the best average forecast:
- Mercedes-Benz: +1.37% (20 segments, avg $56,850) — biggest surprise
- Nissan: +0.81% (9 segments, avg $20,011) — the Leaf effect
- Polestar: +0.51% (5 segments)
- Lucid: +0.32% (5 segments, avg $57,495)
The Mercedes result is worth explaining because it looks like a contradiction — luxury EVs are broadly softening, but Mercedes' brand average is the strongest. It's driven almost entirely by a rally in the 2025 EQS SUV and EQS Sedan segments (+22.74% and +4.52% respectively), which appear to have been priced too aggressively on the way down and are now bouncing. Take those two outliers out and Mercedes' EV portfolio looks similar to BMW's.
Why this is happening
Three forces are compounding to create this split:
One: the federal $7,500 new-EV tax credit expired September 30, 2025 — as widely reported — which pushed new-EV pricing lower and left recent lease returns underwater against their residual values. That hit luxury EVs hardest because they had the largest MSRPs to depreciate from.
Two: three years of luxury EV leases are landing at once. The 2022-2024 EQS, iX, Taycan, Lyriq, and R1S waves are all coming off lease into a used market that never really had $80,000-$150,000 used-EV volume before. Supply is finally catching up with a very small buyer pool. The Charge Port's Q3 report put the average 2-year retention on luxury EV SUVs and sedans at just 54%.
Three: the affordability trade. Buyers priced out of new cars are moving to used, and inside used, they're moving to EVs where fuel and maintenance economics are strongest. That demand has bid up the $15K-$25K used-EV floor and left the $55K-$75K tier without a natural buyer.
What to do about it
If you're shopping a used EV under $25K, our forecasts say don't wait. Nissan Leaf, Chevrolet Bolt EV, VW ID.4, and older Tesla Model 3 Standard Range trims are all still rising. See the full sub-$25K EV list on CarCast.
If you're shopping a used luxury EV, wait. The 2025 iX, EX90, Lyriq, and R1S are all forecast to keep dropping. If you're patient through Q4 2026, you may see six-figure MSRPs land in the mid-$50Ks.
If you're a dealer holding luxury EV inventory, our forecasts should be a wake-up call. Every week you hold an iX or EX90 at current retail is costing roughly 0.6-1.5% of book. Trim exposure now, not later.
If you own a Nissan Leaf, Chevrolet Bolt EV, or 2020-2022 Tesla Model 3, this is one of the better markets in a decade to trade it. Prices are elevated and forecast to stay that way for at least another two months.
The full EV segment-by-segment forecast — every trim, every year, all 206 EV segments we cover — is on CarCast. You can also see how our forecasts stack up against KBB or Edmunds on any specific vehicle.
See the full used EV forecast on CarCast →