Every used car shopper eventually runs into the same question. You've narrowed it down to, say, a 2021 Honda Accord. There's an LX at $20,180 and a Sport at $21,999. The Sport looks like a nicer car for less than $2,000 more. But which one is going to hold its value over the next few months? And more importantly — which one is the used market bidding up right now?
We ran the numbers. CarCast currently tracks 57 same-year, same-model trim pairs across the mainstream used market where we have both a cheapest trim and a most-expensive trim in the database. That's Honda LX vs. Sport, Toyota LE vs. XLE, Ford XLT vs. Raptor, Jeep Laredo vs. Limited, and 53 others. Here's what the data actually shows going into August 2026 — and it's more interesting than the usual "always buy the base trim" advice.
The headline: it's basically a coin flip
Across all 57 mainstream pairs, the cheapest trim wins 27 times, the most expensive wins 30 times. The average 8-week forecast for cheapest trims is −0.07%. For most expensive trims, +0.06%. That is essentially a wash. If someone tells you base trims universally out-appreciate premium trims, our data doesn't support it — at least not in July 2026.
But that's just the top-line average. The pattern breaks down completely different depending on what kind of vehicle you're shopping.
Trucks: base trim wins, and it's not close
If you're shopping a used truck, the entry trim beats the top trim in almost every matchup:
| Year | Truck | Entry trim | Forecast | Premium trim | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Toyota Tundra | SR5 ($43,749) | +1.39% | TRD Pro ($60,215) | −0.85% |
| 2024 | Toyota Tacoma | SR5 ($36,998) | +1.13% | TRD Pro ($58,000) | −0.39% |
| 2024 | Ford F-150 | XLT ($43,333) | +0.21% | Raptor ($75,985) | −0.97% |
| 2023 | Toyota Tundra | SR5 ($41,932) | +0.09% | TRD Pro ($55,221) | −0.86% |
| 2022 | Toyota Tundra | SR5 ($37,778) | −1.47% | TRD Pro ($56,134) | −1.01% |
| 2021 | Ford F-150 | XLT ($32,474) | −0.87% | Raptor ($60,442) | −0.37% |
Across 14 truck pairs in our database, entry trims average +0.29 percentage points better than premium trims. The premium off-road trims — Raptor, TRD Pro — carry a price premium the used market simply isn't rewarding right now. This lines up with a truck market that's broadly softening across every brand except Ram, and the softening is concentrated at the top of each model line.
If you want an F-150 for holding value, XLT is currently the better bet than Raptor. If you want a Tacoma, SR5 beats TRD Pro. This is one place the "buy the base" advice actually holds up in the data.
Sedans and SUVs: higher trim wins (barely)
Flip to passenger cars and small SUVs and the pattern quietly inverts:
| Body style | Pairs | Avg cheap forecast | Avg premium forecast | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truck | 14 | −0.27% | −0.56% | +0.29% (entry wins) |
| Sedan | 11 | +0.05% | +0.44% | −0.39% (premium wins) |
| SUV | 29 | −0.11% | +0.25% | −0.36% (premium wins) |
Some examples where the top trim is beating the entry:
- 2021 Honda Civic: LX at $18,700 forecast −1.68%. Sport at $19,995 forecast −0.30%.
- 2022 Nissan Rogue: S at $19,849 forecast −1.32%. SV at $19,995 forecast −0.07%.
- 2022 Toyota RAV4: LE at $26,343 forecast −0.60%. XLE at $28,740 forecast +0.41%.
- 2022 Toyota Camry: LE at $21,936 forecast −0.04%. SE at $22,783 forecast +0.56%.
- 2021 Ford Bronco: Big Bend at $36,995 forecast −3.77%. Base at $37,888 forecast +0.26%.
Two things are going on here. First, on many mainstream nameplates the price gap between entry and mid-trim is tiny — Camry LE vs. SE is $2, Rogue S vs. SV is $146. When the price is basically identical, buyers keep picking the trim with the features. Second, some "base" trims (Toyota LE, Nissan S, Ford Bronco Big Bend) are perceived as fleet or rental spec and get discounted by the used market on the way out. The trim right above them — SE, SV, Sport — is where the mainstream buyer actually wants to land.
The real predictor isn't trim tier. It's price band.
The clearest pattern in our full 679-segment mainstream universe is by price band, not trim level:
| Price band | Segments | Avg 8-week forecast | Rising >1% | Softening <−1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $15K | 29 | −0.13% | 2 | 4 |
| $15-20K | 98 | +0.06% | 22 | 21 |
| $20-25K | 130 | +0.47% | 17 | 22 |
| $25-35K | 177 | +0.08% | 22 | 19 |
| $35-50K | 110 | +0.02% | 17 | 17 |
| $50K+ | 135 | −0.59% | 20 | 39 |
The $20,000-$25,000 band is where the market is hottest right now. Some standouts in that price band with 8-week forecasts above 3%: the 2020 Chevrolet Suburban LS at $23,043 (+6.45%), the 2022 Kia EV6 Light at $21,495 (+4.59%), and the 2024 Nissan Rogue SV at $21,147 (+3.20%).
Above $50K, the market is bleeding — 39 of 135 segments are forecast to soften by more than a percentage point in the next two months. Rivian R1S at $86,990 is forecast −8.83%. BMW iX at $64,672 is −4.84%. Volvo EX90 at $57,205 is −4.85%. This is where the softening in premium and luxury EV inventory is showing up.
What this means if you're shopping right now
Three practical takeaways from the data:
If you're truck shopping, buy the base or work-trim over the flagship off-road version. XLT beats Raptor. SR5 beats TRD Pro. Laredo beats Limited on Jeep Grand Cherokee too (+0.72% vs −1.32% for 2021 model year).
If you're sedan or SUV shopping, the low-fleet-spec base trim isn't always the value it looks like on paper. If the mid-trim is $500-2,000 more with better options, our forecasts suggest the market is pricing that gap in and won't punish you for it. Check the exact segment on CarCast before assuming base is the right move.
If you're targeting appreciation (or hedging against depreciation over the next 60 days), stay in the $20K-$25K band regardless of trim. That's the strongest signal we see across the entire mainstream used-car market right now. Above $50K, be patient — softening is broad and the discounts should keep coming.
The full 8-week forecast for every trim we track is on CarCast, and you can compare our forecasts against KBB and MMR on any specific segment. If you want weekly updates like this one, check pricing.
See the full trim-by-trim forecast for your next used car →