Are used car prices going up in July 2026?

As of July 2026, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index — the leading wholesale benchmark — is up 0.33% month-over-month, and CarCast's aggregate 30-day forecast across 666 segments is down 0.87%. Direction varies sharply by segment: trucks, SUVs, EVs, and classics each move on their own cycle. See the Rising and Softening leaderboards above for the segment-level breakdown.

What is the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI)?

MUVVI is a monthly wholesale price index published by Cox Automotive that tracks transactions at Manheim auctions across the US. It's the most widely cited benchmark for the direction of US used-car wholesale prices. CarCast incorporates MUVVI into every segment forecast and shows the current MoM change and index level at the top of this page.

When will used car prices drop?

Used car price direction is segment-specific — there is no single "used car market." CarCast's 30-day forecasts classify each of 666+ tracked segments as Rising (>+1.5% over 30 days), Stable (±1.5%), or Softening (below -1.5%). At any given time, dozens of segments are softening while dozens of others are rising. Browse the full vehicle index to find the 60-day outlook for any specific year/make/model.

How accurate are CarCast's used-car forecasts?

CarCast's 60-day median forecast (P50) has a mean absolute error of roughly 3–5% across tracked segments, based on weekly backtests. Each forecast also publishes P10/P50/P90 confidence bands, so dealers and flippers can size positions to the uncertainty rather than the point estimate alone.

How is CarCast different from MMR (Manheim Market Report)?

MMR is a backward-looking wholesale valuation — it tells you what a vehicle sold for in recent Manheim auctions. CarCast is a forward-looking AI forecast — it tells you where the segment's price is most likely heading over the next 60 days. The two are complementary: MMR anchors today's valuation, CarCast projects the next two months.

Why are used car prices still elevated?

Used-car retail prices (BLS CPI for used cars and trucks) are down 1.77% year-over-year as of July 2026. New-vehicle supply normalization since 2024, lease-return shortages, and segment-specific tailwinds for trucks, hybrids, and EVs are the structural drivers on the wholesale side. See the macro backdrop section above for current readings on both wholesale (MUVVI) and retail (CPI) trends.

Current trends

Used Car Market Trends — July 2026

A snapshot of the used car market in July 2026, computed from 666 vehicle segments with 8-week AI forecasts, plus the wholesale (MUVVI) and retail (CPI) backdrop for the month.

Avg 30-day change

-0.87%

666 segments

MUVVI MoM

+0.33%

Manheim wholesale

Used-car CPI YoY

-1.8%

BLS retail

Outlook

Softening

Aggregate trend

What was rising in July 2026

No segments classified Rising.

What was softening in July 2026

No segments classified Softening.

Holding value in July 2026

Vehicle	Body	30-day forecast
2015 Ferrari LaFerrari	hypercar	-1.5%	Forecast
2016 Toyota Tacoma SR5	truck	-1.5%	Forecast
2011 Bugatti Veyron	hypercar	-1.4%	Forecast
2015 Jeep Grand Cherokee Limited	suv	-1.4%	Forecast
1982 Porsche 911	classic	-1.4%	Forecast

See current month trends

Forecasts and trend classifications are informational analytics only and do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to purchase, hold, or sell any vehicle. Individual market conditions vary.