The used-car market is doing something it hasn't done since 2011. It's punishing V8s.
The national average gas price hit $4.08 on August 31, up from $3.19 a year ago — a 28% year-over-year climb according to AAA data. Retail listing prices are elevated. Loan rates are still north of 8%. And in that environment, the used market is rewarding the fuel-efficient V6 or turbo-four version of every muscle car, truck, and SUV — while quietly discounting the V8 twin sitting on the same lot.
We ran the numbers across every V6-vs-V8 (or turbo-four-vs-V8) trim pair in our database. The pattern is consistent enough that if you're shopping any of these vehicles right now, it should change what you buy.
The headline data
Grouping our full mainstream forecast universe into two buckets — high-performance / V8-signaling trims vs. entry / efficient-engine trims — the split is clean:
| Bucket | Segments | Avg 8-week forecast | Strong risers (>1%) | Strong decliners (<−1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry / efficient (LX, XLT, SXT, LT, EcoBoost, SR5, Sport) | 371 | +0.13% | 78 | 60 |
| High-performance / top (GT, R/T, SS, Raptor, TRD Pro, Denali) | 59 | −0.66% | 2 | 15 |
Look at that last column. Out of 59 high-performance segments in our database, only 2 are forecast to rise more than 1% in the next eight weeks. Fifteen are forecast to soften by more than 1%. The buyer pool for used V8 muscle and top-tier off-road trims has thinned to the point where our proprietary AI is picking up broad-based softening.
Now the pair-by-pair breakdowns.
Dodge Charger: V6 SXT rising, V8 R/T sinking
We covered this in last week's Charger deep-dive, but it's worth repeating because it's the cleanest example in our database:
- 2020 Charger SXT (V6) — $17,799 → +4.50% in 8 weeks
- 2023 Charger SXT (V6) — $24,499 → +1.63%
- 2019 Charger SXT (V6) — $16,268 → +1.41%
- 2017 Charger R/T (V8) — $21,995 → −2.20%
Same body, same interior, same nameplate. The engine is the entire story.
Ford Mustang: EcoBoost stable, GT Premium softening, V6 rising
Our current Mustang forecasts:
- 2014 Mustang V6 — $11,995 → +4.47%
- 2023 Mustang EcoBoost Premium (turbo-4) — $23,850 → +2.32%
- 2018 Mustang EcoBoost (turbo-4) — $17,394 → +0.49%
- 2019 Mustang GT Premium (V8) — $34,962 → +0.34%
- 2022 Mustang EcoBoost — $24,653 → −0.45%
- 2017 Mustang GT Premium (V8) — $29,011 → −0.95%
- 2015 Mustang GT Premium (V8) — $26,696 → −1.16%
- 2025 Mustang Dark Horse (V8) — $63,937 → −0.75%
- 2024 Mustang Dark Horse (V8) — $61,857 → −0.29%
Every Dark Horse and GT Premium we track is softening or flat. The turbo-4 EcoBoost trims are mostly positive, and the old naturally-aspirated V6 (a 2014-only trim in modern Mustangs) is up nearly 4.5%.
Ford F-150: XLT holding up, Raptor bleeding
The F-150 pair is subtler because both trims are broadly negative, but the gap is real:
| Year | Raptor (V8/twin-turbo) | XLT (EcoBoost V6) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −0.76% ($80,599) | — | — |
| 2024 | −0.80% ($74,900) | −1.17% ($42,567) | Raptor better |
| 2023 | −0.07% ($68,141) | −0.84% ($39,867) | Raptor better |
| 2022 | −0.87% ($61,475) | −2.43% ($35,811) | Raptor better |
| 2016 | — | +0.96% ($18,390) | XLT positive |
| 2015 | — | +2.90% ($17,002) | XLT positive |
| 2014 | — | +1.81% ($14,000) | XLT positive |
Interesting wrinkle here: within the F-150 line, the Raptor holds up better than the XLT among 2022-2024 trucks. That's because Raptor is a specialty enthusiast vehicle, not a daily driver, and the fuel-cost hit doesn't dominate the decision. But older XLTs — under $20K, cheap-truck territory — are the ones rising. It's the same sub-$20K truck flow we called out three weeks ago.
Toyota 4Runner: TRD Pro V8 flat, SR5 mostly holding
- 2017 4Runner SR5 (V6) — $26,097 → +3.11%
- 2022 4Runner SR5 (V6) — $34,682 → +0.58%
- 2021 4Runner SR5 (V6) — $32,262 → +0.21%
- 2019 4Runner SR5 (V6) — $29,261 → +0.04%
- 2024 4Runner SR5 (V6) — $38,209 → −0.03%
- 2023 4Runner TRD Pro (V6+) — $53,325 → −0.35%
- 2022 4Runner TRD Pro — $48,990 → −0.27%
- 2018 4Runner TRD Pro — $36,076 → −1.64%
- 2025 4Runner (V6) — $49,559 → −4.58%
- 2019 4Runner TRD Pro — $39,116 → −1.21%
The 4Runner is technically a V6-only nameplate, but the pattern still holds: the cheaper SR5 trims are the winners and the flagship TRD Pro is broadly flat-to-negative. Same "buyers want affordable, not fancy" flow.
Jeep Wrangler: entry trims all positive
Jeep gives us the cleanest positive-side view because we track only lower-trim Wrangler segments:
- 2015 Wrangler Sport — $15,056 → +3.56%
- 2021 Wrangler Sport — $25,042 → +1.64%
- 2017 Wrangler Sport S — $18,404 → +1.39%
- 2014 Wrangler Sport — $14,500 → +1.30%
- 2019 Wrangler Sport — $22,325 → +0.82%
- 2016 Wrangler Sport S — $16,995 → +0.71%
- 2022 Wrangler Sport — $25,999 → +0.20%
- 2020 Wrangler Sport — $22,774 → −0.78%
- 2023 Wrangler Sport — $29,767 → −0.71%
Every Wrangler Sport under $23,000 is positive. The two Wranglers above $25,000 are the two that are softening. Same pattern: sub-$25K rules, above $30K risk.
Silverado 1500 LT: only older trims positive
The Silverado 1500 story lines up with the F-150 story. Every 2019-2024 Silverado LT is flat-to-negative. But:
- 2016 Silverado 1500 LT — $18,488 → +3.03%
- 2015 Silverado 1500 LT — $16,860 → −1.69%
- 2014 Silverado 1500 LT — $14,999 → +2.22%
- 2018 Silverado 1500 LT — $21,995 → +1.81%
The 5.3L V8 in an older LT-trim Silverado becomes a positive again once the truck itself is cheap enough. Above $30K, the fuel cost dominates the buyer's math. Under $22K, buyers are just happy to get a full-size truck at all.
What this means if you're shopping
Three practical takeaways:
One: skip the V8 muscle car above $25,000. Every Mustang GT Premium, Charger R/T, and Dark Horse in our current forecast is flat-to-negative. Same body, same interior, same nameplate — buy the EcoBoost or SXT V6 version and let our forecast do the work. See the full Mustang and Charger forecasts on CarCast.
Two: shop pickups under $22,000, or splurge above $60,000. The middle is where the softening is worst. Sub-$22K XLT and LT trucks are still rising. Raptor-tier specialty rigs above $60K are holding up on collector demand. Everything between is depreciating.
Three: TRD Pro / Denali / Platinum / King Ranch trims are getting cheaper. If you specifically want the top trim of a truck or SUV, waiting through Q4 2026 should get you a better price. Our forecasts have 15 of 59 top-trim segments dropping more than 1% in the next 8 weeks — that's a 25% strike rate on discounts, versus 16% at the entry-trim level.
The full trim-by-trim forecast for every V6/V8 pair mentioned above is on CarCast, and you can compare our forecasts against KBB and Edmunds on any specific vehicle.
See the full V6 vs V8 breakdown on CarCast →