The used car market has changed shape twice already this summer, and we're calling a third turn this week. Six weeks ago, our July 14 weekly forecast flagged sedans quietly leading and trucks softening across every brand except Ram. Two weeks ago, our data story showed sub-$10K cars pulling away from the pack at +2.25% average.
This week's pull tells a slightly different story. The affordability rally is real and getting stronger. But something else is happening on top of it: sedans have moved into the outright leadership position, Ford trucks have flipped positive, and the entire top of the market keeps grinding lower. Here is what the current 8-week CarCast forecast says heading into late August.
Signal mix and market direction
Across all 1,470 vehicle segments in our database with a live 8-week forecast on August 16, 2026:
- 316 Rising signals (avg forecast +7.78%)
- 900 Stable signals (avg −0.06%)
- 254 Softening signals (avg −6.62%)
- Overall average forecast: +0.49%
That is a big number for a marketwide average. Six weeks ago the mainstream body-style universe was hovering barely above zero. Today, the Rising cohort is climbing at nearly 8% on the 8-week outlook and pulling the whole market up with it. It lines up with what Cox Automotive's mid-August Manheim update has been signaling — wholesale used values remain elevated versus 2025, and the affordable-tier segments are doing the heavy lifting.
Body style leaderboard: sedan takes the crown
Mainstream body-style 8-week averages this week:
| Body style | Segments | Avg forecast | Strong risers (>1%) | Strong decliners (<−1%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sedan | 274 | +0.72% | 84 | 60 |
| SUV | 529 | +0.45% | 130 | 106 |
| Truck | 140 | −0.04% | 19 | 23 |
| Convertible | 9 | −1.06% | 2 | 3 |
| Hatchback | 13 | −1.21% | 2 | 5 |
| Coupe | 31 | −1.66% | 7 | 4 |
Sedans have moved into the outright lead. Their average forecast is nearly 8x what it was six weeks ago. This is the same "priced-out buyer trading down" flow we've been tracking — sub-$27,000 sedans are the natural destination when average listing prices pushed above $27,000 in June and inventory under $15,000 sat at just 33 days of supply against a 47-day market average.
SUVs are still positive but no longer leading. Trucks flipped from clearly softening (−0.46% six weeks ago) to essentially flat at −0.04% — more on that in a moment. Coupes and convertibles remain the weakest body styles, and hatchbacks are dragged down by softening Chevrolet Bolt EV pricing.
Brand rankings (mainstream, 5+ segments)
Rising fastest:
- Dodge — +5.32% avg across 13 segments (the Charger rally shows up again)
- Buick — +1.71% (12 segments)
- Volkswagen — +1.16% (19 segments)
- Kia — +0.83% (46 segments) — third consecutive week in the top 5
- Chevrolet — +0.69% (94 segments)
- Mercedes-Benz — +0.65% (38 segments)
- Cadillac — +0.63% (16 segments) — first time in the top brands since spring
- Jeep — +0.62% (37 segments)
Softening fastest:
- Lucid — −1.14% (5 segments)
- Rivian — −1.07% (9 segments)
- BMW — −0.61% (37 segments)
- Audi — −0.42% (28 segments)
- Mazda — −0.15% (19 segments)
- Toyota — −0.13% (111 segments)
Dodge at +5.32% is one of the strongest brand-average forecasts we've ever printed. It's not any single vehicle — every Charger SXT model year we track (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022) is on the rising list, plus older Charger SE trims. The market is bidding up affordable, older domestic sedans hard, and Dodge is the biggest beneficiary because its portfolio skews so heavily toward exactly that vehicle profile.
Toyota back in the softening list is the story we're tracking for the third straight week. It's the same trim-mix issue from before — RAV4 LE and Camry LE pricing keep the brand average negative even as the truck lineup improves.
Top mainstream risers ($15K-$60K)
Excluding data-quality outliers from the collector tier, the sharpest individual mainstream 8-week forecasts:
- 2024 Chevrolet Tahoe LT — $46,585 → +21.55%
- 2023 Ford Mustang EcoBoost Premium — $23,919 → +14.69%
- 2026 Volkswagen ID.4 — $40,719 → +14.18%
- 2024 GMC Acadia Elevation — $35,517 → +14.11%
- 2018 Ford Mustang EcoBoost — $16,980 → +12.22%
- 2022 Dodge Charger SXT — $21,697 → +11.38%
- 2019 Dodge Charger SXT — $16,495 → +10.73%
- 2022 Mazda3 Base — $19,990 → +9.94%
- 2021 Dodge Charger SXT — $19,770 → +8.74%
- 2022 Nissan Sentra S — $16,561 → +7.96%
- 2020 Dodge Charger SXT — $17,985 → +7.78%
- 2015 Toyota 4Runner SR5 — $20,399 → +7.75%
Three themes across that list:
Full-size domestic SUVs. The 2024 Tahoe LT at +21.55% and 2024 GMC Acadia Elevation at +14.11% are unusual — new-ish domestic SUVs rarely show up as top gainers. Our forecast is picking up a supply shortage in this specific price band ($35K-$50K late-model domestic SUVs) that lines up with dealer inventory reports.
The affordable-sedan rally. Charger SXT model years 2019-2022, Mustang EcoBoost 2018/2023, Mazda3 Base 2022, Sentra S 2022. This is exactly the sub-$25K sedan flow we flagged in the data story two weeks ago, extending upward into the low-$20K band.
One EV riser. The 2026 Volkswagen ID.4 at +14.18% is the standout — while most 2025-2026 luxury EVs are still on our softening list, the ID.4 at $40,719 has caught a bid consistent with the broader used-EV wholesale rally.
Top mainstream decliners
Softening 8-week forecasts to watch:
- 2017 Dodge Charger R/T — $21,985 → −19.44% (V8 trim; the SXT is rising but R/T is falling)
- 2015 Ford Mustang GT Premium — $26,995 → −12.58%
- 2017 GMC Acadia Denali — $15,610 → −9.63%
- 2025 Ford Explorer Active — $36,489 → −7.15%
- 2021 Toyota Prius LE — $20,984 → −7.00%
- 2018 GMC Acadia Denali — $18,099 → −5.69%
- 2022 Chevrolet Bolt EV — $19,855 → −5.44%
- 2021 Ford Bronco Big Bend — $38,490 → −5.44%
- 2022 Hyundai Sonata SE — $17,059 → −5.40%
- 2021 Chevrolet Bolt EV LT — $17,998 → −4.90%
- 2025 Cadillac Lyriq — $48,073 → −4.76%
- 2025 Volvo EX90 — $56,300 → −4.59%
- 2022 Subaru Forester Base — $19,995 → −4.57%
The 2017 Charger R/T at −19.44% while every Charger SXT is rising is a clean trim-level split. The market wants base and mid-trim Chargers, not the V8. Similarly, GMC Acadia Denali is softening while Acadia Elevation is on our top-risers list.
The truck market has quietly rebalanced
Truck-by-brand this week vs. six weeks ago:
| Make | Now | Six weeks ago | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ford | +0.34% | −0.42% | Flipped positive |
| Ram | +0.11% | +0.11% | Unchanged (still positive) |
| Honda | +0.08% | −0.17% | Improved |
| Jeep | +0.07% | −0.77% | Big improvement |
| GMC | +0.06% | −0.68% | Big improvement |
| Rivian | −0.01% | −1.59% | Much better |
| Nissan | −0.07% | −0.10% | Slightly worse |
| Chevrolet | −0.22% | −0.49% | Improved |
| Toyota | −0.37% | −0.46% | Marginal |
Every truck brand except Nissan improved over the last six weeks. Ford in particular flipped from clearly softening to comfortably positive. The truck market didn't rebound — it stabilized. If you were waiting on the midsize truck buying window we called in May, the runway has probably closed on Ford; Toyota Tacoma remains the last brand where our forecasts still favor patience.
What to do this week
Buyers under $25K: stay aggressive. Charger SXT (any year 2019-2022), Mustang EcoBoost, Mazda3 Base, and Sentra S are all on the rising list. See the full sub-$25K forecast on CarCast.
Buyers of full-size domestic SUVs: the Tahoe deep-dive matters here — the 2024 Tahoe LT at +21.55% is the strongest large-SUV signal we've seen in months. Don't wait.
Truck buyers: the wide-open buying window is closing. Ford F-Series and Ram exposure needs to be locked in now; only Toyota Tacoma still has clear softening left to run.
Anyone eyeing a $50K+ vehicle: wait. Lyriq, EX90, and any 2025 luxury EV are still forecast to decline through October.
The full segment-by-segment forecast for every one of the 1,470 vehicles we track is on CarCast — including every trim mentioned above. You can also see how our forecasts stack up against KBB and MMR on any specific segment.
See the full weekly forecast on CarCast →