If you are shopping for a used mid-size truck, our data has a clear message: buy in May, not July.
The whole segment is heating up at once. CarCast's 60-day forecasts show three of the four most-shopped mid-size trucks moving into BUY territory, with the broader category seeing the strongest upward signals of any vehicle group we track. Sales data from Q1 2026 backs this up: mid-size pickup volume was up 10.2% year-over-year, with several nameplates posting double-digit growth.
That combination - tightening supply and forecasted price increases over the next 60 days - is the textbook setup for a market where waiting costs money. Here is what the data shows, model by model, and how to think about timing your purchase.
The current 60-day forecast across mid-size trucks
CarCast tracks live asking-price data on every popular mid-size truck nameplate. As of this week, the 60-day forecast looks like this:
| Vehicle | Current median ask | 60-day forecast | Expected move | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Chevrolet Colorado LT | $32,997 | $34,641 | +5.0% | BUY |
| 2020 Nissan Frontier SV | $21,990 | $22,904 | +4.2% | BUY |
| 2019 GMC Canyon SLE | $24,323 | $25,153 | +3.4% | BUY |
| 2019 Chevrolet Colorado LT | $21,995 | $22,341 | +1.6% | BUY |
| 2019 Toyota Tacoma TRD Pro | $36,875 | $37,413 | +1.5% | HOLD |
| 2023 Nissan Frontier SV | $32,910 | $33,383 | +1.4% | HOLD |
| 2023 Ford Ranger XLT | $32,902 | $33,289 | +1.2% | HOLD |
| 2021 Honda Ridgeline RTL | $27,982 | $28,272 | +1.0% | HOLD |
| 2022 Toyota Tacoma TRD Pro | $45,998 | $46,457 | +1.0% | HOLD |
Three things stand out.
First, the 2023 Chevrolet Colorado LT at +5.0% is the strongest signal in the entire CarCast database this week. A $1,644 expected move over 60 days on a sub-$33K truck is a meaningful number, and that is the median asking price across hundreds of active listings, not a one-off.
Second, older value-tier examples are leading the rebound. The 2020 Frontier SV and 2019 Canyon SLE are both forecast to climb 3-4%. These are exactly the price points where mid-size truck demand is strongest right now: capable, affordable, and well-depreciated.
Third, nothing in the segment is falling. Across 25 mid-size truck segments we track, the worst-performer is essentially flat. That is rare. Most vehicle categories have at least a few SELL signals in any given week. The mid-size truck market is moving in one direction.
Why this is happening
A few things are converging simultaneously. None of this is exclusive to our data, but the alignment is striking.
New mid-size truck sales are surging. Q1 2026 sales were up 10.2% across the segment, with Toyota Tacoma up 15.8% and Nissan Frontier up 47.9% year-over-year. When new sales accelerate, used pricing tends to firm up behind them - more visibility, more cross-shopping, more dealers competing for inventory.
The new versus used spread is wide. A new 2026 Colorado LT starts at roughly $34,500. Our data shows a used 2023 Colorado LT at $32,997. For most buyers, that $1,500 spread does not justify the leap to new, especially with three years of depreciation already absorbed on the used example. The closer used asking prices climb toward new MSRP, the more dealers feel comfortable raising them further.
Summer demand is structurally higher. Used car sales as a whole peak in the summer months. Trucks specifically tend to see strong buyer interest in May, June, and July as summer projects, moves, and recreational use ramp up. Sellers know this. By July, the asking prices reflect it.
Mid-size trucks are a backstop against higher rates. With borrowing costs still elevated, buyers who would have stretched into a new full-size truck five years ago are landing on a 2-4 year-old mid-size example instead. That demand pull is real and visible in the volume data.
What to do, by buyer type
The forecast splits cleanly into actionable groups depending on what you actually need.
If you need a daily driver with light truck capability: the 2020 Nissan Frontier SV at $21,990 is the strongest value play in our data right now. It is a BUY signal, +4.2% expected, and you are getting a true mid-size truck for under $22K. The Frontier's Q1 2026 sales surge of nearly 48% says the broader market has noticed.
If you want a more refined option with newer tech: the 2023 Chevrolet Colorado LT at $32,997 has our model's strongest BUY signal at +5.0%. The third-generation Colorado launched in 2023 with a meaningfully better interior than older mid-size trucks, and supply will tighten quickly if our forecast plays out.
If you are cross-shopping a Tacoma: the picture is more mixed. The 2019 Tacoma TRD Pro at $36,875 is still HOLD territory and historically holds value better than any other mid-size truck. If a TRD Pro is what you want, you are unlikely to find a falling market on it - just buy it when one in your spec shows up.
If you are watching a Ranger or Gladiator: both are HOLD signals on most years. There is no urgency to act this week, but also no expectation of meaningful price relief over the next 60 days.
What to avoid
For balance, the same data set shows a few SELL signals worth noting if you happen to be selling a full-size truck right now:
- 2020 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 LT at $29,199, forecast to fall 2.1% over 60 days
- 2025 Toyota Sequoia TRD Pro at $79,224, forecast to fall 1.6%
If you have one of these and are flexible on timing, the data argues for listing now rather than waiting.
The macro context
The broader used-car market is firming up underneath everything. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index hit 210.5 in January 2026, the highest reading since 2023. The US used-car CPI is sitting at 176.2 as of March, which is down year-over-year but stable month-to-month. Translation: dealers are seeing genuine buyer demand at current price levels, and the macro environment is no longer dragging prices down.
That matters because seasonal patterns plus a supportive macro plus a sales surge in one specific segment is exactly the recipe for a 60-day price climb.
The two-month verdict
If you are going to buy a used mid-size truck in 2026, the best window opens now and likely closes by mid-summer. The pricing dynamics our model is reading are not subtle - we are watching three separate BUY signals fire across the segment simultaneously, against a backdrop of accelerating new sales.
You can wait. But our data says you will pay for it.
See the forecasts
CarCast tracks 60-day forecasts on 792 active vehicle segments, refreshed weekly from real US dealer listings.
See the 2023 Chevrolet Colorado LT forecast