A common piece of used car advice says to buy the last model year before a redesign. The thinking is that the old design is fully sorted out, and once the new version arrives, buyers move on and the old one gets cheaper.
Last week's Chevrolet Colorado deep-dive seemed to prove it. The 2022 Colorado LT, the final year before the 2023 redesign, had fallen faster than any other Colorado model year. So we tested the idea on 13 popular nameplates. It holds for some vehicles and not for others.
How did we test it?
For each nameplate, we compared the last model year of the old generation with the first model year of the new one, using the same trim wherever our data allowed. Every segment had at least 500 listing observations in the past four weeks. The "since June" column compares the June 2026 average median asking price with the four weeks ending November 9, and we report it only where June also had at least 500 listings. Forecasts are CarCast's AI-powered 60-day forecasts, run November 8.
The market backdrop is mixed. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index reached 206.8 in October, up about 2% year over year. By segment, compact cars rose 6.5% while pickups (−0.7%) and SUVs (−0.2%) kept slipping.
How much cheaper is the last model year before a redesign?
| Nameplate (trim) | Last old-gen year | Price | First new-gen year | Price | New-gen premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chevrolet Colorado (LT) | 2022 | $20,294 | 2023 | $30,990 | +53% |
| Kia Sportage (LX) | 2022 | $16,244 | 2023 | $20,939 | +29% |
| Nissan Rogue (S) | 2020 | $14,189 | 2021 | $16,984 | +20% |
| Jeep Grand Cherokee (Limited) | 2021 | $21,387 | 2022 | $25,499 | +19% |
| Ford F-150 (XLT) | 2020 | $25,502 | 2021 | $30,149 | +18% |
| Ford Ranger (XLT) | 2023 | $30,899 | 2024 | $35,812 | +16% |
| Honda Civic (LX) | 2021 | $17,795 | 2022 | $19,995 | +12% |
| Honda CR-V (EX) | 2022 | $25,337 | 2023 | $28,434 | +12% |
| Nissan Frontier (SV) | 2021 | $23,099 | 2022 | $25,900 | +12% |
| Toyota Camry (SE) | 2024 | $26,200 | 2025 | $28,795 | +10% |
| Toyota Tacoma (SR5) | 2023 | $34,101 | 2024 | $35,998 | +6% |
| Hyundai Elantra (SE) | 2020 | $14,653 | 2021 | $14,999 | +2% |
| Toyota Tundra (SR5) | 2021 | $36,023 | 2022 | $35,575 | −1% |
The cost of moving up to the new generation ranges from 53% to nothing at all. A 2022 Tundra SR5, the first year of the new generation, has a lower median price than the 2021.
Does the old design lose value faster?
Usually not. We compared how much each last old-gen year has fallen since June with earlier years of the same generation and trim. The last year fell noticeably faster (by 1.5 points or more) in only 4 of the 12 nameplates where we could make that comparison:
- Chevrolet Colorado LT: 2022 down 11.6%, compared with 5.3% for the 2021
- Kia Sportage LX: 2022 down 8.5%, compared with 6.6% for the 2020
- Ford F-150 XLT: 2020 down 7.0%, compared with 4.7% for the 2019
- Nissan Rogue S: 2020 down 5.9%, compared with 4.3% for the 2019
For the Civic, CR-V, Ranger, Tacoma, Tundra, Frontier, Camry and Elantra, the last old-gen year fell about as much as earlier years, or less. The 2024 Camry SE is down just 1.1% since June, compared with 4.2% for the 2022 Camry SE.
Being the last year of a generation doesn't automatically push prices down. It mainly matters when the redesign was a big jump that sent buyers to the new version.
What does CarCast forecast next?
| Nameplate | Last old-gen 60-day forecast | First new-gen 60-day forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado LT | −2.66% (Sell) | −3.81% (Sell) |
| Sportage LX | −2.06% (Sell) | +0.05% (Hold) |
| Rogue S | +2.22% (Buy) | −2.50% (Sell) |
| Grand Cherokee Limited | −1.76% (Sell) | −3.16% (Sell) |
| F-150 XLT | −3.41% (Sell) | −3.76% (Sell) |
| Ranger XLT | −0.97% (Hold) | +0.78% (Hold) |
| Civic LX | −0.32% (Hold) | −2.42% (Sell) |
| CR-V EX | −1.21% (Hold) | +0.09% (Hold) |
| Frontier SV | +0.05% (Hold) | −0.10% (Hold) |
| Camry SE | +0.32% (Hold) | −0.54% (Hold) |
| Tacoma SR5 | −0.70% (Hold) | −0.73% (Hold) |
| Elantra SE | −2.05% (Sell) | +0.13% (Hold) |
| Tundra SR5 | −1.35% (Hold) | −2.01% (Sell) |
How should you use this when shopping?
Sort the nameplate you're considering into one of three groups:
1. Big discount, still falling: wait, then buy the old generation. The 2022 Colorado LT, 2022 Sportage LX, 2021 Grand Cherokee Limited and 2020 F-150 XLT all sell for 18% to 53% less than the first new-gen year, and all are still rated Sell. Expect them to get cheaper through the holidays, so negotiate hard.
2. Big discount, already firming: buy the old generation now. The 2020 Rogue S is about 20% cheaper than a 2021 and is rated Buy at +2.22%. Meanwhile, the 2021 Rogue S is rated Sell. For a buyer on a budget, this is the clearest win on the list.
3. Small or no discount: skip the old generation. When the newer design costs 6% or less, as with the Tacoma, Elantra and Tundra, there's little reason to buy the outgoing model. The 2022 Tundra already costs less than the 2021, and its Sell rating means it may get cheaper still. With the Elantra, the 2021 redesign costs only about $350 more and is forecast to hold steady while the 2020 is rated Sell.
Everything else (Civic, CR-V, Frontier, Camry, Ranger) falls in between, with 10% to 16% premiums and mostly Hold signals. For these, choose based on which design you prefer. Timing won't change much.
The bottom line
The last-year-before-a-redesign rule is a starting point, not a guarantee. What matters is how big the price gap to the new generation is and which way each model year's forecast is heading. Both can change from one nameplate to the next.
You can search any model year on CarCast to compare its forecast with the generation next to it, check our numbers against KBB and Edmunds, or see what each CarCast plan includes.