Two weeks ago, CarCast's model showed something rare: across 50 carefully-sampled EV and ICE segments, we found zero SELL signals. Every tracked vehicle was forecast to either hold or climb over the next 60 days. We called it the most stable used-car market in years.
That stability didn't last.
This week, eight segments across our full 794-vehicle database have flipped into SELL territory. The headline reversal: the 2022 Ford Mustang Mach-E Select, which had been a BUY signal as recently as mid-May, is now our weakest segment at -4.92% projected over 60 days. Three Chevy full-size SUVs and trucks joined it. So did both Prius LE model years we track.
The broader market temperature also cooled. Average forecasted 60-day move across all 794 segments dropped to +0.07%, with 423 segments now forecast negative against 370 positive. Two weeks ago that ratio was inverted.
Here is the full weekly read.
Top 10 risers — where prices are climbing
These are the segments forecast to gain the most over the next 60 days, filtered to mainstream brands with at least 0.60 forecast confidence.
| Vehicle | Current ask | 60-day forecast | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Mazda CX-5 Sport | $18,988 | $19,996 | +5.31% |
| 2023 Chevrolet Colorado LT | $32,997 | $34,641 | +4.98% |
| 2019 Kia Sorento LX | $13,999 | $14,607 | +4.34% |
| 2020 Nissan Frontier SV | $21,990 | $22,904 | +4.16% |
| 2023 Genesis GV70 2.5T | $29,863 | $31,007 | +3.83% |
| 2019 GMC Canyon SLE | $24,323 | $25,153 | +3.41% |
| 2021 Toyota RAV4 LE | $25,965 | $26,789 | +3.17% |
| 2021 Kia Telluride LX | $24,995 | $25,775 | +3.12% |
| 2020 Subaru Outback Base | $21,228 | $21,881 | +3.08% |
| 2024 Rivian R1T | $62,990 | $64,918 | +3.06% |
Notable: the top of the list is unchanged from last week. The mid-size truck cluster (Colorado, Frontier, Canyon) and the compact SUV cluster (Mazda CX-5, RAV4, Outback) continue to define the upward edge of the market. The pricing dynamics behind these segments — tight inventory, summer demand, post-March stabilization — haven't shifted.
What did shift is the breadth. Two weeks ago, the "top 10 movers" extended to virtually every recent-year Toyota and Honda. This week, the strength is concentrated at the top, and the second tier has softened.
Top 10 fallers — where prices are coming off
These are the segments where our model is forecasting the steepest drops over the next 60 days. Five carry hard SELL signals; the rest are downgraded HOLDs.
| Vehicle | Current ask | 60-day forecast | Expected move | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Ford Mustang Mach-E Select | $27,738 | $26,372 | -4.92% | SELL |
| 2020 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 LT | $29,199 | $28,602 | -2.05% | SELL |
| 2021 Chevrolet Suburban LS | $39,995 | $39,231 | -1.91% | SELL |
| 2021 Toyota Prius LE | $19,723 | $19,381 | -1.73% | SELL |
| 2020 Toyota Prius LE | $18,893 | $18,572 | -1.70% | SELL |
| 2025 Toyota Sequoia TRD Pro | $79,224 | $77,964 | -1.59% | SELL |
| 2019 Honda Pilot EX | $21,500 | $21,187 | -1.46% | HOLD |
| 2019 Toyota 4Runner SR5 | $31,988 | $31,529 | -1.43% | HOLD |
| 2025 Ford Mustang Dark Horse | $71,070 | $70,074 | -1.40% | HOLD |
| 2019 Subaru Crosstrek Base | $17,310 | $17,077 | -1.35% | HOLD |
The Mach-E reversal is the story. We had the Mach-E lineup flipping into BUY territory in late May, and called it a meaningful directional change. Three weeks later, it's the worst-performing segment in our entire forecast database. EV demand is real, but the volatility is also real, and individual model years can swing hard.
The full-size truck and SUV softness — Silverado 1500 LT, Suburban LS, Sequoia TRD Pro — is consistent with what we've been seeing for two months. Big trucks and big SUVs have not participated in the broader market firming.
The two Prius LE model years showing up together is new. Both are forecasting modest declines that suggest hybrid demand at the value end of the lineup has hit a near-term ceiling.
What the macro data says
Cox Automotive reported the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index hit 212.6 in May 2026 — up 3.6% year-over-year but only +0.3% month-over-month. April had seen a 1.6% drop in MUVVI, the first month-over-month decline in six months. The May reading represents a stabilization rather than a continuation of the early-2026 surge.
Autotrader reports used-vehicle inventory recovered from March's record-low 37-day supply to 43 days at the start of May. That's still tight versus historical norms but no longer at crisis levels.
Kelley Blue Book put the average used car transaction price at $26,342 in April, roughly 3% above the same month last year — and stated they don't expect significant price changes through summer.
Our 794-segment data is consistent with all three of these readings. The broader market is firming on a year-over-year basis but no longer rising fast. Segment-by-segment dispersion is widening — some vehicles are still climbing 3-5%, others are now actively falling 1-5%, and the middle is just holding flat.
What to do this week
If you own a 2022 Mach-E and were planning to sell this summer: sell now. Our data argues that waiting four to eight weeks costs roughly 5% on a $28,000 asking price.
If you're sitting on a full-size GM truck or SUV: same story — the SELL signals on Silverado 1500 LT and Suburban LS have been consistent across multiple weeks of our data.
If you're shopping for a mid-size truck, compact SUV, or any of the top 10 risers: prices are forecast to climb. Buy this week, not next month.
If you're a wholesaler at auction this week: the BUY clusters (Mazda CX-5, Colorado, Frontier, RAV4, Telluride, Outback) all still warrant aggressive bidding. The SELL clusters (Mach-E, Silverado 1500 LT, Suburban LS, Sequoia TRD Pro) warrant skipping or lowballing.
See the live forecasts
CarCast tracks 60-day forecasts on 794 active vehicle segments, refreshed weekly from real US dealer listing data.
See the 2019 Mazda CX-5 forecast
See the 2022 Ford Mustang Mach-E Select forecast