For two years, used electric vehicle prices have been the most divergent segment in the entire used car market. In early 2025, iSeeCars reported that used EV prices fell 15.1% year-over-year while gas and hybrid vehicles dropped just 0.5%. Tesla alone was down 13.6%, dragging the broader segment down with it. Dealers and wholesalers learned to discount any EV in their inventory as a depreciating asset.
That story is over.
Live CarCast data across 25 used EV segments and 25 comparable ICE segments shows the two markets have converged. Average 60-day forecasted move on EVs: +1.19%. Average on comparable ICE vehicles: +1.55%. Same direction, same magnitude, same signal mix. The 36-basis-point gap is statistical noise.
More striking: across both groups combined, our model is firing zero SELL signals. Every single tracked segment is forecast to either hold or rise over the next eight weeks. The used car market has reached a stability that nobody who bought an EV in 2023 thought possible.
The data, side by side
CarCast tracks 60-day forecasts on roughly 800 active vehicle segments, refreshed weekly from real US dealer listing data. To make a fair EV-vs-ICE comparison, we pulled 25 mainstream used EVs (Tesla family, Rivian, Bolt, Mach-E, Bolt EUV, Ioniq, EV6, Niro EV, Leaf, ID.4) and 25 comparable mainstream ICE vehicles (RAV4, Camry, CR-V, Civic, Accord, Mazda CX-5, Outback, Forester, Tucson, Telluride) across model years 2020-2024.
| Group | Avg 60-day forecast | BUY signals | HOLD signals | SELL signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Used EVs (25 segments) | +1.19% | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Comparable ICE (25 segments) | +1.55% | 10 | 15 | 0 |
The ICE side has more BUY signals (10 vs 5), but that reflects specific tight inventory pockets in the compact SUV segment (RAV4, Outback, Forester, Mazda CX-5) where summer demand is pulling prices up faster than usual. On the EV side, the BUYs are concentrated in newer model years where lease returns haven't yet flooded the market.
The five EV BUY signals worth noting
Five used EV segments currently carry BUY signals in our model. They tell you exactly where the new EV demand is concentrated:
| Vehicle | Current ask | 60-day forecast | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Rivian R1T | $62,990 | $64,918 | +3.06% |
| 2024 Tesla Model Y | $37,508 | $38,444 | +2.50% |
| 2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E | $48,296 | $49,491 | +2.47% |
| 2021 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus | $23,429 | $23,977 | +2.34% |
| 2020 Tesla Model S | $33,500 | $34,050 | +1.64% |
Three patterns jump out. First, the 2024 Model Y at +2.5% is the second-strongest EV signal in our system - we covered the full Model Y deep-dive two weeks ago and the signal has held up. Second, the 2025 Mach-E flipping into BUY territory is genuinely new. Just three months ago, the Mach-E lineup was the worst-performing EV in our database with multiple SELL signals. Ford's pricing discipline and lease return timing have completely changed the trajectory. Third, the 2021 Model 3 Standard Range Plus at $23,429 is showing the kind of used-EV demand pull that defines the maturity of the segment. Three to five years post-launch, with proven battery longevity, these become value buys.
What changed
A few things converged at once. None of these are exclusive to our data, but the alignment is unmistakable.
Lease returns finally hit at scale. Industry projections put 2026 used EV lease returns at 400,000 to 500,000 vehicles - and 2027 estimates roughly double that. That sounds like a flood that should push prices down. In practice it does the opposite, because the supply is meeting genuine demand from buyers who waited out the 2024 reset.
New EV prices stabilized. Tesla and Ford both pulled back from the aggressive new-car price cuts that defined 2023-2024. Used pricing follows new with a lag, and the lag has now caught up. With new pricing stable, used pricing has a floor.
Buyer confidence is back. Cox Automotive's analysis puts 2025 average EV three-year depreciation at 38-42%, vs 35-40% for ICE. That's a 2-7 point spread - within historical norms for any new technology segment maturing into the secondary market. Standardized battery health reporting, longer warranties, and proven track records on early-generation models have made buyers comfortable.
Macro tailwinds favor the used market broadly. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index hit 210.5 in January 2026, its highest reading since 2023. The broader used market is firming up underneath every segment.
Where this puts dealers and wholesalers
For anyone who took our advice over the past two years to be cautious on EV inventory, the data argues for reversing that stance. The EV market is no longer a depreciation hazard - it's a normal segment of the used car market, behaving like any other segment.
If you're a wholesaler, used Tesla Model Y inventory at 2-3 year-old age points is among the strongest BUY signals our model has on. If you're an independent dealer, the new opportunity is in EV inventory that you would have rejected six months ago. Move quickly - the 2024 Model Y, the 2024 Rivian R1T, and the 2025 Mach-E are all in tight supply windows that could close by mid-summer.
For private buyers, the converged market means EV-versus-ICE is now genuinely a feature comparison rather than a depreciation gamble. The total cost of ownership math now favors EVs more clearly than it has in years, because the resale value risk has stabilized.
What to watch next
The signal we're tracking most carefully is the spread between 2-3 year-old EV pricing and the equivalent new-car incentive level. If Tesla, Ford, GM, or Hyundai cut new-car prices again, used pricing will drop with them. That's the single largest swing factor for the second half of 2026.
Our model will reflect any new-pricing changes within 2-3 weeks of them showing up in listing data. If you're tracking a specific EV, the live 60-day forecast is on each vehicle's page.
See the forecasts
CarCast tracks 60-day forecasts on 792 active vehicle segments, refreshed weekly from real US dealer listings.
See the 2024 Tesla Model Y forecast