For two years, the used Tesla Model Y has been the poster child for messy EV depreciation. Aggressive new-car price cuts in 2023 and 2024 dragged secondary values down faster than almost any mainstream crossover, and analysts at every auction tracker spent 2025 trying to call the bottom.
The bottom appears to be in.
Live data from CarCast's forecasting system shows something we haven't seen in this segment for years: every single Tesla Model Y model year we track is now sitting in BUY or HOLD territory for the next 60 days. Not a single year is falling. The 2024 Model Y is leading the rebound with a projected +2.5% move, while older years are slowly clawing back ground after the 2024-2025 reset.
Here is what the data shows, what it means, and how to think about a used Model Y purchase or sale in the next two months.
Where every Model Y year sits today
CarCast tracks asking-price data on seven model years of the Model Y, from 2020 through the brand-new 2026. As of this week, the current median asking prices and 60-day forecasts look like this:
| Model year | Current median ask | 60-day forecast | Expected move | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Model Y | $46,998 | $47,137 | +0.3% | HOLD |
| 2025 Model Y | $39,998 | $40,240 | +0.6% | HOLD |
| 2024 Model Y | $37,508 | $38,444 | +2.5% | BUY |
| 2023 Model Y RWD | $33,491 | $33,772 | +0.8% | HOLD |
| 2022 Model Y Long Range | $29,998 | $30,393 | +1.3% | HOLD |
| 2021 Model Y Long Range | $27,000 | $27,327 | +1.2% | HOLD |
| 2020 Model Y Long Range | $25,935 | $26,147 | +0.8% | HOLD |
Three things stand out from this table.
First, the 2024 Model Y is the strongest signal in the entire family at +2.5%. That is a meaningful move on a $37,000 asset over 60 days, and it tracks with what CarGurus and other listing aggregators have been reporting since February: a 1- to 2-year-old Model Y is now in the sweet spot of demand. Cars in this age band combine the latest hardware refresh with prices that finally feel rational compared to a new equivalent.
Second, the 2025 and 2026 versions are essentially flat. This is exactly what you would expect when Tesla is still selling the same vehicle new at the dealership: used-to-new spreads have to make sense or no one buys the used one. The 2026 at roughly $47K and a new equivalent in the low $40s after incentives is a tight enough spread that there is no room left for the used price to climb.
Third, every older year is grinding upward at roughly 1%. That is the sound of a depreciation curve flattening out. Twelve months ago, every one of these segments was in active free-fall.
The 2024 Model Y story in detail
The 2024 Model Y is the segment we have the most data on right now, and the 12-week price history tells a clear story. In early February, the median asking price across our tracked listings was around $39,000. By mid-March it was holding near $38,500. The most recent week shows $37,508 on 1,204 active listings, the highest inventory count we have recorded for this segment.
Translation: more inventory came online over the spring, prices took one more leg down, and the model has now found a floor. Our forecasting model reads the price-flow plus underlying market signals and projects a 2.5% rebound over the next eight weeks, taking the median back toward $38,500.
That is also a useful anchor for buyers. If you have been watching the 2024 Model Y, our data suggests prices in the high $36,000s are the bargain. By mid-summer, the model expects those bargains to thin out.
What is driving the stabilization
A few things are converging at once. None of these are exclusive to CarCast's data set, but the alignment is striking.
Lease returns finally hitting the market. A wave of three-year leases originated in late 2022 and 2023 is now feeding the used pipeline, and Model Y is the highest-volume off-lease EV in America. More supply usually pushes prices down, but the supply is meeting genuine demand from buyers who waited out the 2024 reset.
New Model Y pricing has stopped falling. Tesla cut new prices aggressively through 2023 and 2024. Those cuts dragged used values down because the spread between new and used had to keep working. In 2026, new pricing has stabilized, and so has the floor for late-model used inventory.
The macro context is helping. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which CarCast tracks as a wholesale benchmark, hit 210.5 in January 2026, the highest reading since 2023. The broader used market is firming up underneath every segment, including EVs. Meanwhile, the US used-car CPI is at 176.2, down year-over-year, which is squeezing dealer margins but supporting buyer activity.
What to do with this data
The signal split across the Model Y family lines up cleanly with three actions depending on which side of the trade you are on.
If you are buying, the 2024 Model Y is the strongest target right now. Prices have moved down to a level our model expects to bounce, and the inventory peak gives buyers leverage to negotiate at the low end of the asking range. The 2022 and 2023 Long Range trims are quietly attractive as the price-per-mile-of-range floor in the segment.
If you are selling a 2024 Model Y privately, the data argues for waiting four to eight weeks if your timeline allows. Selling now means selling into the inventory peak; selling into July likely means selling into a tighter market.
If you are a dealer holding 2025 or 2026 Model Ys, the flat forecast is honestly the most actionable signal: do not expect any tailwind here. Move them on volume.
Comparing across the Tesla family
The Model 3 family is showing similar patterns. The 2021 Model 3 Standard Range Plus is up 2.3% in our 60-day forecast, putting it in the same general BUY band as the 2024 Model Y. That cross-confirmation matters. When two adjacent Tesla segments tracked on independent listing data both show upward forecasts, it is a real signal about Tesla used-market demand, not a fluke.
For buyers cross-shopping, the 2024 Model Y at roughly $37,500 is a meaningfully better deal per dollar than the 2026 at $47,000, and the depreciation gap our model expects to compress is only going to make that comparison tighter through the summer.
A note on confidence
The 2024 Model Y forecast carries a 0.65 confidence score in our model, which is moderate. The 2022 and older versions carry 0.79 confidence, reflecting longer price-history records. Whenever you see a forecast on CarCast, the confidence number is telling you how thick the underlying data is, not how dramatic the prediction is. A 0.65 forecast still has real signal; it just has more uncertainty on the margin.
See the full forecast
CarCast tracks 60-day forecasts on 374 active vehicle segments, refreshed weekly from real US dealer listings. The full Tesla Model Y forecast across every year and trim, plus 26-week price history charts, are available on each vehicle's page.