In late May we wrote about used EV and ICE prices converging for the first time in two years. The Mach-E was a small but notable part of that story: its lineup had just flipped into BUY territory after months of being the worst-performing used EV in our database.

Three weeks later, that thesis only half held.

The 2025 Mach-E is still a strong BUY in our model at +2.5% over 60 days. But the 2022 Mach-E Select has flipped hard the other direction. It is now our entire database's weakest forecast at -4.92% over 60 days — a sharper SELL signal than any other vehicle we track, ICE or EV. The price split between the 2025 and the 2022 is the widest single-nameplate divergence we cover.

This is a deep-dive on what's happening across the six model years of Mach-E we track, why the 2022 specifically is selling off, and what it tells you about used EV market timing.

The full Mach-E forecast across years

CarCast tracks every Ford Mustang Mach-E model year from 2021 through 2026. Here is the current state of all six segments:

Model year	Current median ask	60-day forecast	Expected move	Signal
2026 Mustang Mach-E	$49,750	$49,509	-0.49%	HOLD
2025 Mustang Mach-E	$48,296	$49,491	+2.47%	BUY
2024 Mustang Mach-E	$38,287	$37,922	-0.95%	HOLD
2023 Mustang Mach-E Select	$33,000	$32,688	-0.95%	HOLD
2022 Mustang Mach-E Select	$27,738	$26,372	-4.92%	SELL
2021 Mustang Mach-E Select	$23,989	$23,975	-0.06%	HOLD

Read that table once and the story is immediately weird. The 2025 is climbing. The 2022 is in free-fall. The 2021 — older than the 2022 — is essentially flat. The 2024, 2023, and 2026 are all holding within a one-point band.

This is not how depreciation curves are supposed to look. In a normal segment, you would expect a smooth slope from newest to oldest, with one or two outliers. The Mach-E lineup right now is jagged. The 2022 is the kink.

The 2022 in detail — eight weeks of decline

The price history shows exactly what is happening. In early March, the median asking price on our tracked 2022 Mach-E Select inventory was $28,798. By the first week of May, it was $27,738. That is a 3.7% decline over eight weeks, on roughly 220 active listings per week. Our forecast model is reading the price flow and projecting another 4.9% drop over the next 60 days, bringing the median toward $26,400.

The continuous slope matters more than the point estimate. This is not a one-week noise event. The market has been writing down the 2022 Select consistently since early spring, and our model expects that to continue.

Why the 2022 specifically

Three forces are converging on this exact model year and trim.

Lease return wave. Recharged.com's used Mach-E buying guide noted that 2022 was the first Mach-E model year to see meaningful lease return volume into the secondary market in 2025-2026. Lease maturities of 36-39 months from 2022 originations are hitting dealer lots now. The supply bump is real and concentrated.

Ford's aggressive new-Mach-E discounting. Electrek reported in April 2026 that Ford put up to $5,000 in retail incentives on the 2025 Mach-E and $3,000 on the 2026 model. When a new Mach-E with a fresh battery warranty is available for $33,000 net, a used 2022 Select at $28,000 starts to look expensive on a TCO basis. Used pricing has to compress to keep the gap reasonable.

Recall overhang. A December 2025 Ford recall on rollaway risk covered the 2024-2026 Mach-E directly, but the broader pattern of Mach-E recalls and software fixes is well-documented now. Buyers are aware. That awareness shows up as discounting pressure on the model years where buyers expect the most history of issues — including the 2022.

Why the 2025 is going the other way

The 2025 BUY signal is real and it is for a different reason entirely. New Mach-E production was paused in mid-2025 over the door-lock safety issue, InsideEVs reported, and Ford was concurrently raising prices on Mexico-built 2025 units by roughly $2,000 due to tariffs. That left a small, well-equipped used inventory of 2025 Premiums and GTs in the market — lightly used, freshly recalled and fixed, with full battery warranty.

Our model reads the inventory tightness plus the new-MSRP increases as upward price pressure. A 2025 at $48,296 looks like a deal when a comparable 2026 starts at $49,690 per Edmunds and Ford's mid-year pricing actions have pushed real transaction prices on new units up.

What this means for buyers and sellers

If you own a 2022 Mach-E Select and have been considering selling, the data is unambiguous: list now. By August, the median asking price our model projects is $26,372 — a $1,400 hit on a $28,000 vehicle. That is more loss than a typical 60-day depreciation window for any vehicle in our database.

If you are shopping a Mach-E:

The 2024 model year is the value sweet spot. CarEdge's analysis identifies the 2024 as the best Mach-E model year for value, with the most useful life remaining per dollar paid. Our forecast on the 2024 at -0.95% over 60 days suggests light additional downside — meaning the bargain that exists today may persist for another month or two before bottoming.

The 2021 at $23,989 is the cheapest entry into Mach-E ownership and our model has it essentially flat. If you are okay with five-year-old EV technology and want the lowest possible entry price, this is the year. Verify battery health, confirm the December 2025 recall work has been completed, and you are getting a fully-warrantied EV (Ford's 8-year/100K battery coverage still applies) for $24,000.

The 2025 is the only year actively appreciating. If you are willing to spend $48,000+, the data argues for moving quickly. Our model expects the median to hit $49,491 within 60 days.

The bigger picture

The Mach-E lineup is a useful case study in why "EV depreciation" as a generic concept fails to describe what is actually happening in the used EV market. The 2022 and the 2025 are the same nameplate, the same brand, the same drivetrain. One is the worst-performing segment in our 794-vehicle database. The other is among our top 50 BUY signals. The difference is supply timing, recall positioning, and new-vehicle incentive pressure.

For dealers and wholesalers, the operational takeaway is to think in segments and model years rather than makes. The brand-level Mach-E average is a -0.65% over 60 days — basically a HOLD. The truth at the segment level is much more interesting.