Genesis Just Beat Every German Luxury Brand — And Toyota — In Our Forecast

We ran the numbers this week.

Across 802 vehicle segments in CarCast's active forecast database, we computed the average 60-day price-change forecast at the brand level. Which brands is our model most bullish on? Which is it most bearish on? The rankings tell a story that would have been unthinkable five years ago.

Genesis is number one. Not by a small margin. By a huge one.

Genesis segments average a +0.98% forecasted move over the next 60 days — more than double the second-place brand and nearly triple Toyota's average. Meanwhile, Audi is at the bottom of every mainstream brand we track at -0.28%, BMW is at -0.18%, and Mercedes-Benz is barely positive at +0.02%. The German luxury tier — the historical value-retention benchmark for the premium market — is now underperforming the mid-market and losing to a brand that did not exist as a standalone marque until 2015.

Here is the full ranking, and what it means.

The full brand-level forecast rankings

Filtered to brands with 5+ tracked segments, excluding ultra-low-volume exotics (Ferrari, Lamborghini, McLaren, Bentley, Bugatti, Aston Martin) where confidence is thinner.

A few takes.

The Genesis surprise is not really a surprise anymore

Genesis has been quietly assembling one of the strongest resale stories in the industry. iSeeCars' 2026 Genesis resale rankings show the Genesis G70 holding 56% of its value at five years, the GV70 at 53.2%, and the G80 at 51.3%. Every one of those figures beats the German luxury average, and all three beat where BMW's 3 Series and Mercedes' C-Class currently sit.

What our forward-signal data adds is that the appreciation is still happening. Genesis is not just decaying slowly — it is actively climbing in the next 60 days. Ten of the twelve Genesis segments we track are forecast positive. The 2023 Genesis GV70 2.5T at $29,863 is currently our #5 BUY signal at +3.83%.

The buyer story is straightforward. Genesis vehicles cost meaningfully less new than an equivalent BMW, Mercedes, or Audi — CarGurus reports the average used Genesis at $39,702, which is 42% above the CarGurus overall index but well below the equivalent German competitor. That price gap plus improving reputation is pulling used demand upward.

The German luxury underperformance is real and getting worse

At the other end of the ranking, Audi at -0.28%, BMW at -0.18%, and Mercedes-Benz at just +0.02% are all lagging. CarTax reported in April 2026 that the BMW X5 xDrive40i dropped $8,300 in four months (December 2025 to April 2026), the Audi Q7 dropped $9,800-$13,000 over the same period, and the Mercedes GLE 350 dropped $13,200 on some configurations.

Those aren't one-off configurations. They're the volume trims of the volume nameplates for three of the biggest luxury brands in America.

Two structural forces are working against German luxury right now:

Off-lease supply. A wave of 2022 and 2023 lease originations is returning to the market. German lease penetration is higher than the industry average, so the incoming supply hits German brands disproportionately hard.

New-car cost inflation. A recent CBT News analysis noted that entry-level luxury sedans now cost $55,000 to $70,000, versus $35,000 to $45,000 a few years ago. Buyers are increasingly stepping across to Genesis, Lexus, and even loaded Toyotas at the same price point. Nearly 75% of luxury segment vehicles are now selling below MSRP.

Our forecast model reads this as pricing pressure, and the signal is that it is not over yet.

Toyota looks weaker than expected. That's because of segment breadth.

Toyota's +0.03% average looks off relative to Toyota's reputation for resale. But the breakdown matters: Toyota has 74 tracked segments — more than any other brand in our database — and that averaging effect pulls the number toward zero as SELL signals on 2025 Sequoia TRD Pro (-1.59%) and softer signals on 2020-2023 Camry sit alongside strong BUY signals on 2021 RAV4 LE (+3.17%) and older Tacomas.

At the segment level, Toyota still owns some of the strongest resale positions in the market. At the brand-average level, breadth washes it out. This is one reason why segment-level analysis matters — brand rollups can hide meaningful variation.

What is quietly working

Rivian at +0.49% is our second-place brand. That's a genuinely bullish signal for a company where most industry commentary has been about financial risk rather than resale strength. The 2024 R1T at $62,990 is a BUY at +3.06%, and every one of the nine tracked Rivian segments is HOLD or better. That is not a market pricing in a distressed brand.

Mazda at +0.31% continues to punch above its weight. The 2019 CX-5 Sport is our strongest signal in the entire database at +5.31%, and Mazda's twelve tracked segments include two BUYs and ten HOLDs — zero SELLs.

Rivian, Mazda, Honda, Subaru, and Nissan together define the "value-plus-reputation" cluster that CarCast is bullish on for the next 60 days. All five sit between +0.20% and +0.50%, with strong internal consistency (few outliers, mostly HOLDs, occasional BUYs).

What is quietly not working

Ford at -0.06% looks fine at the brand level, but the composition matters. The 2022 Mach-E Select is our worst SELL signal in the entire database at -4.92% (we wrote about the year-split within the Mach-E three weeks ago). The full F-150 lineup is essentially flat. Ford's brand average is being propped up by the truck volume, but the EV problem is dragging it.

Ram at -0.21% and Chevrolet at -0.03% are showing the full-size pickup weakness we called out in last week's macro analysis. Silverado 1500 LT is a SELL. Ram 1500 trims are mostly negative. The full-size truck softness is real and structural.

Cadillac at -0.16% is the sole American luxury entry, and it is telling. Domestic luxury has not benefited from the Genesis-style buyer migration; it has just followed the German luxury slide down.

The takeaways

For buyers: if you are shopping used luxury under $50,000, the data argues for looking at Genesis before BMW or Audi. Our forecast plus the underlying resale data both point the same direction. For the same money, you are getting a vehicle whose depreciation curve is meaningfully flatter.

For dealers: your German luxury inventory is a headwind. If you can move it in the next 30 days at current pricing, do it. Our model does not expect these segments to recover in Q3.

For wholesalers: Genesis and Rivian inventory is the trade. Both brands are supply-constrained relative to demand pull, and both are showing forecast-model upside.

For anyone: brand-average forecasts hide segment-level truth. Toyota's brand average of +0.03% obscures a 2021 RAV4 LE at +3.17% and a 2025 Sequoia TRD Pro at -1.59%. When you are making a decision, look at the specific segment, not the brand rollup.

See the live forecasts

CarCast tracks 60-day forecasts on 802 active vehicle segments, refreshed weekly from real US dealer listing data.

See the 2023 Genesis GV70 forecast

See the 2024 Rivian R1T forecast

See the 2019 Mazda CX-5 forecast

Browse all tracked vehicles

Compare CarCast vs Kelley Blue Book