Two weeks ago, Bloomberg reported that a buyer in February paid $32,000 for a 2024 Toyota RAV4 with 44,000 miles on the clock. CarMax was advertising a 2024 RAV4 Hybrid XSE with 29,000 miles at $46,998 — over $8,000 above its original $38,735 sticker price. That is not depreciation. That is appreciation, on a three-year-old used vehicle. And the same story is starting to play out across the broader compact SUV segment.
Our data confirms it. Across 81 compact SUV segments CarCast tracks — every popular trim of RAV4, CR-V, CX-5, Forester, Outback, Tucson, Sportage, Telluride, Rogue, Escape, Equinox, and Tiguan — nine are currently BUY signals, 72 are HOLD, and exactly zero are SELL. The segment-wide average forecast is +0.29% over 60 days. That is unusual. Most segments in our database have at least a few SELL signals at any given time. Compact SUVs have none.
If you have been waiting for compact SUV prices to come down, our data is the clearest "stop waiting" we have published this year.
The 9 compact SUVs in BUY territory right now
These are the segments CarCast forecasts to gain the most over the next 60 days. All carry 0.79+ confidence scores and at least 13 weeks of price history.
| Vehicle | Current ask | 60-day forecast | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Mazda CX-5 Sport | $18,988 | $19,996 | +5.31% |
| 2019 Kia Sorento LX | $13,999 | $14,607 | +4.34% |
| 2021 Toyota RAV4 LE | $25,965 | $26,789 | +3.17% |
| 2021 Kia Telluride LX | $24,995 | $25,775 | +3.12% |
| 2020 Subaru Outback Base | $21,228 | $21,881 | +3.08% |
| 2023 Mazda CX-5 Sport | $25,438 | $25,999 | +2.21% |
| 2022 Subaru Outback Base | $24,998 | $25,542 | +2.18% |
| 2019 Nissan Rogue S | $14,995 | $15,281 | +1.91% |
| 2022 Subaru Forester Base | $25,867 | $26,359 | +1.90% |
A few patterns stand out.
First, value-tier trims dominate. Eight of nine BUY signals are base or near-base trims (Sport, LX, LE, Base, S). The price-sensitive end of the compact SUV market is where the squeeze is sharpest. Buyers who would have stretched into a new $40K+ model are landing on a used $20-25K example instead, and the resulting demand pull is showing up clearly in our forecast model.
Second, older years are leading. The 2019 Mazda CX-5 Sport at +5.31% is the strongest signal in this entire group, and 2019-2020 model years account for five of the nine BUYs. This is the seven-year-old sweet spot — well-depreciated, fully proven mechanically, with five or more years of useful life remaining.
Third, Mazda is quietly outperforming. The CX-5 lineup shows two BUY signals across 2019 and 2023 trims. That tracks with what CarGurus noted earlier this year about the CX-5 being one of the strongest used compact SUV picks in 2026.
What you should NOT see on this list
A few notable absences. Honda CR-V trims are all in HOLD territory but quietly trending up — the 2019 EX is at +1.09%, the 2022 and 2023 EX are at +0.66% and +0.73%. No CR-V is forecasting a meaningful drop. The fact that the strongest "older Honda" signal is only +1.09% tells you Honda CR-V used pricing has already absorbed most of the upward pressure earlier in the year. Per CarGurus data cited in Autoblog, all three 2024 CR-V hybrid trims now retain 80% or more of their original asking price.
Toyota RAV4 trims are similarly bifurcated. The 2021 RAV4 LE is a clean BUY at +3.17%, but the 2020, 2022, and 2023 RAV4 LEs are slightly negative (-0.21% to -1.10%). This is unusual and tells you something specific: 2021 inventory has thinned faster than the surrounding years, possibly because three-year-old leases from 2022 originations are flooding the market and pulling 2022 down, while 2021 lease returns have already cleared. If you want a RAV4 LE this summer, the data says go 2021 over 2022.
What is driving this
A few forces are converging at once.
Gas prices spiked. Bloomberg reported in mid-June that the war in Iran has pushed gas prices "well above $4 per gallon" nationally. That makes fuel-efficient compact SUVs — especially the hybrid variants — disproportionately valuable in the used market.
New SUV prices are still elevated. A new 2026 RAV4 LE starts in the high-$30,000s. A used 2021 RAV4 LE at $25,965 is $10,000+ cheaper for what is mechanically the same vehicle. The spread is wide enough that buyers who would have considered new are now landing on three-to-five-year-old used examples.
Substitution from full-size SUVs. Cox Automotive's Jeremy Robb told Autotrader that "some of the most affordable segments are showing the highest gains so far this year with compact cars higher by 12.3% in non-adjusted values since December." That broader pattern of buyers downsizing to fit budgets is hitting compact SUVs hardest because that is where the substitution lands.
The macro is supportive. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index hit 212.6 in May 2026, up 3.6% year-over-year. Used inventory is at 45 days' supply — tight versus pre-pandemic but no longer at the 37-day crisis low we hit in March. The market is hot, but it has room.
The playbook
If you are buying in the next 8 weeks: act this month. Six of the nine BUY signals are forecast to gain $400-$1,000 by August. Waiting until back-to-school season means paying that delta.
If you can flex to a 2019-2021 model year: prioritize that age band. Five of the nine BUYs sit in that range, and the 2019 Mazda CX-5 Sport specifically at $18,988 is the single strongest forecast in the broader CarCast database this week.
If you are cross-shopping a RAV4 vs CR-V: the data slightly favors the RAV4 for the specific 2021 LE trim (+3.17% vs CR-V 2021 trims at flat-to-slightly-negative). For other years, both lineups behave similarly.
If you are open to a Korean brand: the 2019 Kia Sorento LX at $13,999 (+4.34%) is the cheapest entry on the entire BUY list. The 2021 Kia Telluride LX at $24,995 (+3.12%) is a three-row option in the same forecast band.
If you are a dealer with compact SUV inventory: the market is moving up under you. If you have units that have been sitting at the same asking for two months, our data argues for re-listing at +2-3% rather than discounting.
The bigger picture
Compact SUVs are the single tightest segment in the used car market right now. Zero SELL signals across 81 tracked segments is a market state we rarely see anywhere. The combination of summer demand, gas prices, and macro substitution from larger vehicles has created a window where waiting actively costs buyers money.
The window will not close immediately — the macro forces driving this are sticky. But it will close. Lease returns will continue flooding the market through Q3, and our model will pick up the inventory bumps before they show up in your nearest dealer's pricing.
See the live forecasts
CarCast tracks 60-day forecasts on 794 active vehicle segments, refreshed weekly from real US dealer listing data.
See the 2019 Mazda CX-5 forecast
See the 2021 Toyota RAV4 LE forecast