Exotic & ultra-luxury segment

Used Supercar Forecast — 60-day depreciation outlook on exotic and performance cars.

AI 30 and 60-day price forecasts across Porsche, Ferrari, Lamborghini, McLaren, Aston Martin, Bentley, Pagani, and Lucid. Per-trim — Huracan STO doesn't depreciate like a base Huracan, and the model treats them separately. Weekly refresh, published confidence bands, dealer-listing-backed.

Informational analytics. Not financial advice.

How CarCast forecasts supercar depreciation

CarCast runs a proprietary AI forecasting pipeline against a snapshot of every tracked dealer listing in the US market. For supercars and exotics the model is applied per-trim and per-model-year so halo variants stay distinct from base cars, and the residual curve is anchored against a wholesale index plus macro-economic series.

Per-trim resolution

Huracan EVO, Huracan STO, and Huracan Performante are three separate segments — we don't average a halo car against the base model.

Confidence bands shipped

Every forecast publishes a P10/P90 spread, so you see the range, not just a point estimate. Wider bands on rarer halo cars are honest, not hidden.

Macro-anchored

Forecasts are conditioned on the Manheim wholesale index plus used-car CPI so supercar moves don't drift away from the broader market signal.

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Frequently asked

How accurate are CarCast supercar forecasts?

Mean absolute error sits between 3% and 5% across the exotic and ultra-luxury segment over a 60-day horizon. Higher-volume models (Huracan, 911, Vantage) tend toward the lower end of that band; rarer halo cars with thin listing histories sit at the upper end. Every forecast ships with a published confidence band, not a single number.

Which makes are covered in the supercar forecast?

Porsche, Ferrari, Lamborghini, McLaren, Aston Martin, Bentley, Pagani, Rolls-Royce, Maserati, and Lucid. Coverage is segment-by-segment — a make is included only when there's enough live listing data to forecast credibly.

How often does the supercar forecast refresh?

Every Sunday at 3am ET, the full forecast pipeline re-runs against the latest dealer listing snapshot. The cards on this page revalidate hourly, so a Sunday refresh is live by Monday morning at the latest.

Why do supercars depreciate differently from mainstream cars?

Three structural reasons. (1) Production volume is low, so listing-count swings of a few units move the median price by thousands. (2) Halo trims (STO, GT3, Performante, 600LT) decouple from the base model — a Huracan EVO and a Huracan STO do not depreciate on the same curve. (3) Discretionary buyers respond to macro signals (rates, equity markets) faster than mainstream buyers do, so 60-day moves are larger in both directions.

Is this a paid service?

Forecasts are visible for free on every tracked supercar page. Pro ($149/mo) unlocks the full 60-day horizon, confidence bands, and price alerts. There's also a one-time Founding Member lifetime plan if you'd rather avoid recurring billing.

Forecast accuracy: ±3–5% MAE across the supercar segment over a 60-day horizon. Confidence bands shipped on every page. Not financial advice.

Forecasts and trend classifications are informational analytics only and do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to purchase, hold, or sell any vehicle. Individual market conditions vary.