Exotic & ultra-luxury segment
Used Supercar Forecast — 60-day depreciation outlook on exotic and performance cars.
AI 30 and 60-day price forecasts across Porsche, Ferrari, Lamborghini, McLaren, Aston Martin, Bentley, Pagani, and Lucid. Per-trim — Huracan STO doesn't depreciate like a base Huracan, and the model treats them separately. Weekly refresh, published confidence bands, dealer-listing-backed.
Informational analytics. Not financial advice.
How CarCast forecasts supercar depreciation
CarCast runs a proprietary AI forecasting pipeline against a snapshot of every tracked dealer listing in the US market. For supercars and exotics the model is applied per-trim and per-model-year so halo variants stay distinct from base cars, and the residual curve is anchored against a wholesale index plus macro-economic series.
Per-trim resolution
Huracan EVO, Huracan STO, and Huracan Performante are three separate segments — we don't average a halo car against the base model.
Confidence bands shipped
Every forecast publishes a P10/P90 spread, so you see the range, not just a point estimate. Wider bands on rarer halo cars are honest, not hidden.
Macro-anchored
Forecasts are conditioned on the Manheim wholesale index plus used-car CPI so supercar moves don't drift away from the broader market signal.
Supercar forecasts tracked
12 of the highest-engagement exotic and ultra-luxury segments. Click any to open the full 60-day forecast.
2022 Porsche 911 GT3
+0.1%$270,265 · 176 listings
2023 Porsche 911 GT3
-0.1%$282,688 · 58 listings
2021 Lamborghini Urus
-0.4%$199,993 · 90 listings
2023 Aston Martin Vantage
-0.4%$150,700 · 57 listings
2024 Lucid Air
-0.5%$46,777 · 197 listings
2026 Lucid Air
+1.1%$92,200 · 302 listings
2025 Porsche Taycan
+0.1%$111,973 · 245 listings
2026 Porsche 911 GT3
-1.5%$349,945 · 216 listings
2023 Porsche Taycan
+0.2%$74,843 · 198 listings
2024 Lamborghini Urus
-1.5%$279,999 · 187 listings
2023 Lucid Air
+0.4%$46,283 · 168 listings
2021 Porsche Taycan
-0.7%$63,083 · 139 listings
Get supercar market intel — direct.
Tell us what you're tracking. We'll send forecast moves and category-level commentary on the exotic + ultra-luxury segment. Free, no card required.
Frequently asked
How accurate are CarCast supercar forecasts?
Mean absolute error sits between 3% and 5% across the exotic and ultra-luxury segment over a 60-day horizon. Higher-volume models (Huracan, 911, Vantage) tend toward the lower end of that band; rarer halo cars with thin listing histories sit at the upper end. Every forecast ships with a published confidence band, not a single number.
Which makes are covered in the supercar forecast?
Porsche, Ferrari, Lamborghini, McLaren, Aston Martin, Bentley, Pagani, Rolls-Royce, Maserati, and Lucid. Coverage is segment-by-segment — a make is included only when there's enough live listing data to forecast credibly.
How often does the supercar forecast refresh?
Every Sunday at 3am ET, the full forecast pipeline re-runs against the latest dealer listing snapshot. The cards on this page revalidate hourly, so a Sunday refresh is live by Monday morning at the latest.
Why do supercars depreciate differently from mainstream cars?
Three structural reasons. (1) Production volume is low, so listing-count swings of a few units move the median price by thousands. (2) Halo trims (STO, GT3, Performante, 600LT) decouple from the base model — a Huracan EVO and a Huracan STO do not depreciate on the same curve. (3) Discretionary buyers respond to macro signals (rates, equity markets) faster than mainstream buyers do, so 60-day moves are larger in both directions.
Is this a paid service?
Forecasts are visible for free on every tracked supercar page. Pro ($149/mo) unlocks the full 60-day horizon, confidence bands, and price alerts. There's also a one-time Founding Member lifetime plan if you'd rather avoid recurring billing.
Forecast accuracy: ±3–5% MAE across the supercar segment over a 60-day horizon. Confidence bands shipped on every page. Not financial advice.
Forecasts and trend classifications are informational analytics only and do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to purchase, hold, or sell any vehicle. Individual market conditions vary.